铝产业周报-20260126

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z0023138) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: No production increase or decrease occurred this week, and the operating capacity remained stable [3]. - Demand side: The theoretical output of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets decreased compared to last week, and the center of the spot aluminum price moved down. Industry profits narrowed, and social inventories may accumulate as downstream enterprises take holidays [3]. - Market situation: Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support the aluminum price, and the market is currently showing a high - level and strong oscillation [3]. Alumina - Supply side: There were more alumina overhauls this week, and suppliers' sentiment to hold up prices increased. However, the overall alumina supply was still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors remained [4]. - Demand side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a pattern of slight growth and overall stability in the short term, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. The spot trading atmosphere of alumina was okay this week, but the factory inventory continued to increase [4]. - Market situation: There are still short - term supply disturbances, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Categories 1. Market Data - Aluminum Futures and Spot: Include data such as the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum closing price and position, A00 aluminum spot average price and premium - discount average, etc. [5][6][11][12] - Alumina Futures and Spot: Include the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures main contracts, alumina spot price in different regions, alumina price differences, and basis [16][17][19] 2. Upstream Supply - Bauxite: China's bauxite national monthly output, import volume, and port inventory have seasonal characteristics, and the monthly output varies by province [21][22] - Alumina: China's alumina monthly output, import volume, and national and provincial weekly operating rates are presented seasonally. There are also data on alumina import profit and loss [24][26][27][29] - Electrolytic Aluminum: China and global electrolytic aluminum monthly output, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly output, net import volume, and import profit and loss are shown seasonally [31][32][33][40] 3. Downstream Demand - Aluminum Products Output: The output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots has seasonal characteristics [41] - Industry Operating Rates: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foils are presented seasonally [42][44][50] - Export Data: The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of aluminum products are shown seasonally [52][54] - Related Industries: Data on real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power - source project investment, photovoltaic new - installed capacity) are provided [55][58][60][63][66] 4. Inventory - Bauxite Inventory: China's bauxite monthly inventory and inventory in Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi have seasonal characteristics [67][69] - Alumina Inventory: Alumina enterprise factory inventory, inventory days, SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume have seasonal patterns [70][71] - Aluminum Inventory: LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory, inventory days, aluminum rod and ingot + rod spot inventory have seasonal characteristics [71][72][73] 5. Cost and Profit - Raw Material Prices: Include domestic and imported bauxite prices, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda prices, pre - baked anode prices, power coal prices, Dutch natural gas prices, and European electricity prices [75][76] - Cost and Profit of Products: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are presented [75][76]