变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二：以历史主动精神应对混沌演化

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The global economic system is entering a chaotic evolution phase characterized by non-linearity, bidirectionality, and high sensitivity due to intensified great power competition[1] - The global growth baseline remains resilient, supported by the acceleration of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and industrial transformation[1] - Global trade elasticity has been declining, with trade expansion significantly lagging behind GDP growth since the 2008 financial crisis, dropping below 1[3] Group 2: Security and Uncertainty - National security considerations are increasingly influencing resource allocation, with global military spending projected to reach $2.72 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level since the Cold War[3] - The World Uncertainty Index has risen significantly since 2018, indicating that global uncertainty has evolved from temporary fluctuations to a structural norm[4] Group 3: Asset Performance and Investment Strategy - In a critical chaos phase, both risk assets and safe-haven assets can yield positive returns, reflecting a dual pricing structure[7] - Despite rising macro uncertainty, risk assets still have a strong return potential, as evidenced by the MSCI Global Index achieving returns significantly above global GDP growth rates of around 3% from 2020 to 2025[7] - Safe-haven assets like gold continue to hold value, driven by multiple risk factors, indicating that hedging demand will persist in chaotic environments[8] - The asset allocation logic has shifted from a zero-sum game to a scenario where both risk and safe-haven assets can thrive simultaneously, necessitating a dynamic adjustment to investment strategies[11]