瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the closed - cutting period, with total supply shrinking. The overseas supply has entered the seasonal shrinking stage, and the overall inventory in Qingdao Port shows a slight de - stocking trend. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates, with semi - steel tire production increasing slightly and full - steel tire production decreasing slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will be stable and slightly weak in the short term. The ru2605 and nr2603 contracts should pay attention to the pressure near the previous high points and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,230 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,085 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber both decreased, and the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber increased while that of 20 - number rubber decreased. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange remained unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L is 16,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers both increased by 320 yuan. The prices of butadiene - styrene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical increased. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the basis of 20 - number rubber and its main contract increased [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet, film, glue, cup glue) changed to different extents. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 increased by 13.6 dollars/ton, while that of STR20 decreased by 17 dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber and mixed rubber increased [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 62.62% and 74.56% respectively, with the former decreasing by 2.9 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel tires decreased by 150,000 pieces, while that of semi - steel tires increased by 80,000 pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying increased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options also increased [2] Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The annual sales in 2025 were close to 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area decreased slightly, with the bonded area inventory decreasing and the general trade inventory increasing. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, with the former increasing and the latter decreasing [2]