瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The factory inventory has a narrow decline, but is still much higher than the same period. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has dropped significantly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains strong. The profit of chlor - alkali has only slightly decreased, and the devices are still in a profitable state. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali is small recently. With the high price of liquid chlorine and acceptable chlor - alkali profit, enterprises have no intention to reduce production. The situation of high - operation and high - inventory in the industry is expected to continue. In the short term, the operation load of alumina enterprises remains basically stable, but the low profit of the industry restricts the procurement demand of alumina plants and increases the expectation of future production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda continue to be loose, and there is little room for the 03 contract to rebound; the 05 contract trades on the maintenance expectation, and the price is relatively strong. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the range around 1900 - 2000 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 1973 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract is 262,814 lots, down 19,659 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 29,513 lots, up 8,167 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 890,541 lots, up 206,588 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 2,441 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract is 2,236 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 605 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; in Jiangsu is 750 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1,891 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan. The basis of caustic soda is - 82 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 242.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2,555 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. From January 17th to 23rd, the alumina operation rate decreased by 0.65% week - on - week to 85.18%; from January 16th to 22nd, the viscose staple fiber operation rate remained stable at 88.43% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing operation rate decreased by 2.23% week - on - week to 56.54%. As of January 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 509,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 0.49% and a year - on - year increase of 105.77%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 209 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]