铂钯金期货日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff tension between the US and Europe has eased, but Trump's stance on the acquisition of Greenland remains tough, keeping the short - term risk - aversion sentiment high [2] - In South Africa, the phased load reduction continues, and the risk of power outages during peak night hours restricts the short - term increase in smelter operating rates [2] - The continuous strengthening of the US dollar against the South African rand partially offsets the local currency cost pressure, but a continued depreciation of the rand will suppress marginal supply in US dollars [2] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the substitution demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year [2] - Although global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the rising penetration of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [2] - The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolysers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium [2] - The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2] - For London platinum, the upper resistance is at $2900 per ounce, and the lower support is at $2700 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $2100 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum主力合约 is 744.70 yuan/gram, up 65.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium主力合约 is 534.80 yuan/gram, up 35.80 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约持仓 volume is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the palladium主力合约持仓 volume is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 733.25 yuan, up 51.75 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 0.00 yuan, down 463.00 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约 basis is - 11.45 yuan/gram, down 14.00 yuan; the palladium主力合约 basis is - 534.80 yuan/gram, down 498.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] - The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the estimated total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the estimated total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.50, down 0.78; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, down 0.03% [2] - The VIX volatility index is 16.09, up 0.45 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US is deploying troops to Iran, imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and sanctioning entities related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [2] - Trump said the US expects to gain "sovereignty" over the area of US military bases in Greenland [2] - Some Democratic senators will vote against the government funding bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government "shutdown" at the end of January [2] - Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, and Rick Rieder's probability of being nominated has risen from 4% to about 50% [2] - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the Services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5; the Composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8. All three are slightly lower than expected. The one - year inflation expectation in January 2026 is revised down to 4%, the lowest in a year [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast at 23:30 on January 26 [2] - US M2 money supply at 02:00 on January 28 [2] - Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 on January 29 [2] - US November trade balance (imports and exports) at 21:30 on January 29 [2] - US PPI year - on - year (%) at 21:30 on January 30 [2]