瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260126

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry has high supply pressure despite a slight decline in capacity utilization due to an increase in temporary shutdowns. The terminal real estate and infrastructure sectors are in the low - temperature off - season, and with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are on holiday, so the demand from pre - festival promotions is not sustainable. Short - term export expectations are good but have limited impact on domestic supply - demand contradictions, and inventory is expected to continue rising. The supply of upstream calcium carbide is recovering, which may weaken the cost support for the calcium carbide method. As the previous macro - level positive factors are digested, PVC pricing may return to fundamentals, and V2605 is expected to be strong first and then weak. The daily K - line of V2605 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 4850 and the resistance around 5000 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4959 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38 yuan. The trading volume is 1323485 lots, up 66182 lots. The open interest is 1095101 lots, up 25832 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1075078 lots, down 2464 lots; the short positions are 1164374 lots, up 15968 lots; and the net long positions are - 89296 lots, down 18432 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4845 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4656.54 yuan/ton, up 67.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4835 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4664.38 yuan/ton, up 51.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 209 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2561 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 433 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, down 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80%, up 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, down 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 tons, up 1.49 tons, including 52.74 tons in East China, up 1.12 tons, and 4.91 tons in South China, up 0.37 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of newly - started housing area is 58769.96 million square meters, up 5313.26 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, up 3824.09 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.19%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.8%, up 0.31 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.41%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.46%, up 1.67 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 tons, up 2.92% from the previous week. From January 16th to 22nd, the average national cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 4924 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 800 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 49 yuan/ton [2]