瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The cotton price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the future, driven by factors such as festival stocking and a reduction in cotton - planting area. Although the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a high level, the short - term inventory pressure is controllable due to the combination of downstream rigid demand replenishment and the expectation of reduced planting in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,515 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 155,478 lots, an increase of 8,641 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 1,505 lots, an increase of 331 lots - Cotton main contract open interest is 795,878 lots, down 7,457 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 13,284 lots, down 987 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,144 sheets, an increase of 172 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,365 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,445 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 13,633 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,068 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) is 22,557 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,370 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 848,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,237 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7847 million tons, an increase of 1.1011 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.76 days, up 1.42 days - The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, an increase of 18,187,260,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, an increase of 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.13%, down 0.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.16%, down 0.7% - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.8%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.45%, up 0.01% [2] Industry News - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 15, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 412,500 bales, reaching the annual high, a 21% increase from the previous week and a 119% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 187,800 bales, a 20% increase from the previous week and a 26% increase from the average of the previous four weeks - According to a Brazilian authoritative institution, in December 2025, Brazil exported 452,500 tons of cotton, a 28.2% year - on - year increase. In the first five months of the 2025/26 season, the cumulative export volume was 1.405 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase, reaching the highest export volume from August to December in history [2]