苹果产业日报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of the Spring Festival stocking in the apple industry is still tepid, and the current market remains stable. The transaction of fruit farmers' goods has slightly improved, but the trading volume is still limited. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the festival effect on the market is limited, and short - term price competition has intensified [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan; the main contract position is 103,809 lots, a decrease of 3,709 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 225 lots, a decrease of 2,688 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.19 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.29 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 682.78 million tons, a decrease of 21.88 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.5, a decrease of 0.01; in Shaanxi is 0.53, a decrease of 0.02. The monthly apple export volume is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, an increase of 657,409 million US dollars; the year - on - year export amount of apples is 30.7%. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.21 yuan; of bananas is 7.04 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; of watermelons is 5.85 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11.2 vehicles, a decrease of 0.6 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 23.4 vehicles, a decrease of 2.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 15.6 vehicles, a decrease of 1.2 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.11%, a decrease of 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 24.14%, a decrease of 0.88% [2] 3.7 Industry Conditions - In Shaanxi, the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is mainly a small amount of extreme - end goods, and merchants mainly ship their own inventory. In Gansu, merchants adjust fruit sources as needed, and the packaging and shipment are relatively stable. In Shandong, the transaction is average, and the packaging of gift boxes has started sporadically. The Spring Festival stocking in the late - Fuji apple production areas has slightly improved, and the local shipment has increased month - on - month. Snowfall in some production areas within the week has slightly affected the shipment [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main national production areas is 682.78 million tons, a decrease of 21.88 million tons compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 50.30%, a decrease of 0.87% compared with last week; in Shaanxi is 52.76%, a decrease of 1.56% compared with last week. The overall shipment in Shandong has slightly accelerated, but snowfall has affected the shipment speed in individual production areas, and the number of merchants inspecting goods in the warehouse has slightly increased. The de - stocking in Shaanxi has slightly accelerated month - on - month. In the sales area, the arrival volume has decreased, the transit inventory is overstocked, the market customers are still scarce, and the sales are relatively slow [2] 3.9 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the cold - storage inventory data on Thursday [2]