瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, with continued destocking in the industry. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 165,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15,840 yuan; the net holding of the top 20 is - 154,659 lots, a decrease of 1,878 lots; the main contract's open interest is 416,719 lots, a decrease of 22,009 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 28,646 lots/ton, an increase of 490 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 181,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 178,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 15,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 26,340 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,010 US dollars/ton, an increase of 75 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 17,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 7,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, an increase of 2%; the monthly output of power batteries is 201,700 MWh, an increase of 25,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 138,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 205,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 188,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 203,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 50%, a decrease of 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 60%, a decrease of 3%; the current - month output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,718,000 vehicles, a decrease of 162,000 vehicles; the current - month sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, a decrease of 113,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 47.94%, an increase of 0.45%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles are 16,490,000 vehicles, an increase of 3,624,000 vehicles; the current - month export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, unchanged; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles are 2.615 million vehicles, an increase of 1.331 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 92.88%, an increase of 8.20%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 72.41%, an increase of 5.01% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 102,521 contracts, a decrease of 9,064 contracts; the total holding of put options is 164,446 contracts, an increase of 4,088 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total holding is 160.4%, an increase of 16.693%; the at - the - money implied volatility (IV) is 0.71%, an increase of 0.0328% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The National Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Work Conference emphasized promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, implementing the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and promoting large - scale consumption such as automobiles and household items. Jiangsu Province will continue to promote large - scale equipment updates and optimize the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones in 2026. Beijing's new energy vehicle ownership exceeds 1.3 million, and new energy and "National V - standard" vehicles account for over 80%. In 2026, Chongqing has opened applications for automobile replacement subsidies with the first - batch funds of 185 million yuan. India will reduce the automobile import tariff from a maximum of 110% to 40% after reaching a trade agreement with the EU [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with a - 6.56% decline at the close. The open interest decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day. On the fundamentals, the raw material lithium ore quotes continued to be strong, the smelters had sufficient raw material inventory and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The supply side saw an increase in the willingness of lithium salt plants to ship and produce, with stable domestic supply, but production may decrease as the long holiday approaches. The demand side maintained on - demand procurement, but pre - holiday stocking demand increased in February, and the spot market trading sentiment improved. In the options market, the put - call ratio of the holding was 160.4%, an increase of 16.693% month - on - month, the option market sentiment was bearish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines were above the 0 - axis and the green bars expanded [2]