沪铜产业日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index declined slightly, and the copper ore supply remained tight. The port inventory increased slightly as imports arrived, but was still at a relatively low historical level. The supply of copper was relatively sufficient, while the demand was temporarily stable, and the social inventory increased seasonally. The options market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility increased slightly. The report suggests trading with a light position on dips and paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 101,880 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,112 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 228,979 lots, down 2,458 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 60,976 lots, up 328 lots. The LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, up 3,450 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 145,314 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 102,435 yuan/ton, up 1,605 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 102,400 yuan/ton, up 1,435 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 23 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 22 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 555 yuan/ton, up 1,065 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 66.06 dollars/ton, up 16.78 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 92,710 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 93,410 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 68,340 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 82,700 yuan/ton, up 82,700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,807,345.50 million pieces, up 415,345.50 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 27.16%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.37%, unchanged. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 25.86%, up 0.0275%. The at - the - money option call - to - put ratio was 1.57, up 0.0341 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US January S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the service PMI preliminary value was flat at 52.5, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose slightly to 52.8, all slightly lower than expected. The eurozone January manufacturing PMI preliminary value rose slightly to 49.4, still in the contraction range; the service PMI preliminary value fell to 51.9, lower than expected. Germany's manufacturing and service PMIs both rebounded more than expected. France's manufacturing PMI rose to a nearly four - year high of 51, but the service PMI slowed sharply to 47.9. The national market operation and consumption promotion work conference emphasized promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, implementing the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and promoting large - scale consumption such as automobiles and home furnishings. Jiangsu Province will continue to promote large - scale equipment renewal and optimize the implementation of consumer goods replacement in 2026. In Chongqing, the subsidy for automobile replacement and renewal in 2026 is open for application, with the first - batch funds of 185 million yuan. Beijing's new - energy vehicle ownership exceeds 1.3 million, and the proportion of new - energy and "National V standard" and above vehicles exceeds 80% [2].