南华期货天然橡胶产业周报：化工板块情绪高，合成胶强势带动天胶抬升-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by macro - sentiment and external geopolitical situations, the energy - chemical sector has been strong recently, and the overall capital participation in rubber has increased. The strong performance of synthetic rubber has boosted the price of natural rubber. - The domestic supply of natural rubber is in a state of complex balance. The domestic is in the off - season, but the high import volume in December has led to high inventory, which suppresses prices. The overseas production areas are in the pre - low - season rush, and the weather has little impact on production. - The downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The pre - holiday inventory preparation of tires has increased the start - up rate, but the inventory pressure of dry rubber, downstream products, and terminal products still exists. The heavy - truck and engineering machinery industries are boosted by replacement and exports, but the long - term domestic demand growth is under pressure, and export uncertainty remains. - The price of natural rubber is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend, and resonate more strongly with the chemical sector [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment and geopolitical situations have made the energy - chemical sector strong, increasing the capital participation in rubber. The price increase of synthetic rubber has driven up the price of natural rubber. - The domestic supply of natural rubber is affected by the off - season and high imports, while the overseas supply is affected by the pre - low - season rush. - The downstream demand is affected by pre - holiday inventory preparation, but the inventory pressure is still large. The long - term domestic demand growth is under pressure, and export uncertainty remains [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price Range: The short - term reference oscillation range of the RU main contract is 15,500 - 16,500, with the important pressure point at 16,300; the oscillation range of the NR main contract is 12,400 - 13,500, with the important support point at 13,000. - Trend Judgment: The current downstream pre - holiday inventory demand is stable, and the upstream supply is moderately loose. The overall price may remain relatively strong but may need phased consolidation. - Strategy Suggestions: - Unilateral Strategy: Wait for demand to be realized to relieve inventory pressure. Before the long holiday, liquidity tightens, and there may be a short - term adjustment. Unilateral long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies. - Hedging Strategy: It is expected to be highly volatile. Unilateral positions can be combined with protective options or use spread strategies. Selling options are recommended to be deep - out - of - the - money. - Basis Strategy: The RU basis is at a high level, and the room for further increase may be limited. The valuation of full - latex may continue the seasonal repair trend, while the futures side should focus on macro - sentiment and the trend of synthetic rubber. - Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy: The 5 - 9 spread focuses on the valuation level with low warehouse receipts. It can refer to the seasonal reverse - spread market, but it is difficult to say how high the starting point is. The 05 contract may remain relatively strong and can be considered for short - selling on rallies. Later, the fundamentals should focus on the realization of demand, and the supply should also focus on the winter phenology and the tapping situation in the second quarter of next year. - Variety Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see. Pay attention to the phased low point of the NR - BR spread [15][16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short rubber futures and buy out - of - the - money put options to lock in sales profits and reduce the risk of product price decline. They can also sell call options to increase sales profits. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low standing inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy rubber far - month futures and out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs and reduce the risk of cost increase [30]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerned Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The central bank will increase liquidity injection, and multiple departments have introduced policies to boost consumption and income expectations. The start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises has increased compared with the same period last year. The industrial added value in December 2025 increased year - on - year. The export volume and amount of Chinese rubber tires in 2025 increased year - on - year. The EU's anti - dumping investigation was suspended, and there is a 6 - month buffer period. Some high - latitude production areas will gradually stop tapping, and there is a certain probability of an El Niño state in the third quarter of 2026 [31][32]. - Negative Information: The import volume of natural rubber in December 2025 increased significantly. Geopolitical disputes have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The inventory in Qingdao has increased. The EU has implemented mandatory import registration for Chinese passenger cars and light - truck tires [33][34][35]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Pay attention to the weather in production areas, the progress of tapping suspension, and the cost support brought by raw material rush - buying. - Pay attention to the further trend of synthetic rubber and the change in the price difference with natural rubber. - Pay attention to the changes in port inventory and social inventory, the registration of full - latex warehouse receipts, and the digestion progress of spot goods. - Pay attention to the pre - holiday inventory preparation and production - sales rhythm of downstream tires, and the holiday shutdown situation. - Pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities, the Fed's January interest rate decision, and relevant economic data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: Last week, commodities continued to oscillate strongly. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber drove the synchronous rise of natural rubber, with an increase in positions and trading volume. - Capital Movement: Last week, the rubber prices strengthened collectively, and the short positions in Shanghai rubber and 20 - standard rubber decreased significantly [37][43]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - Spot Price Changes: The prices of various rubber spot products have increased to varying degrees. - Delivery Product Price Trends: The price trends of 20 - standard rubber delivery products are shown in the report. - Term Structure Analysis: The basis of full - latex is in a regression trend, and the Indonesian standard rubber NR maintains at par. The forward cargo of Thai mixed rubber has a premium. The price of synthetic rubber has boosted the price of natural rubber, but the accumulation of dry rubber suppresses the far - month contracts of RU. - External Market Quotes: The unilateral trends and term structures of the external market are presented in the report. The price difference between RU and Japanese smoked - sheet rubber futures 05 contract has slightly declined, and the price difference between NR and Singapore standard rubber has oscillated higher. - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index: The macro - atmosphere is warm, driving the recent strong and volatile trend of rubber. The strengthening of synthetic rubber has driven up the valuation of natural rubber, but the inventory pressure has increased the divergence between long and short positions, and the virtual - to - physical ratio is higher than the historical average. - Variety Spread Analysis: The price difference between dry - rubber spot products has widened. The price difference between natural and synthetic rubber has narrowed [46][64][80]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw Material Cost: The domestic production areas are in the off - season, and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks remains stable. In Thailand, the raw material price has increased due to the rush - buying by processing plants and second - hand dealers. The raw material price in Malaysia has slightly adjusted. - Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber: Yunnan and Hainan are currently in the off - season. The selling price of rubber blocks has remained stable recently, and the production profit of tire rubber has increased slightly. - Processing Profit - Imported Rubber: Last week, the profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was stable, and the processing and import profits of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber increased significantly [89][103][105]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main Producing Countries' Output: The global natural rubber output in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year, with different growth rates in different countries. - Domestic Import Situation: In 2025, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased significantly. - Main Producing Countries' Total Demand: The demand in China in November rebounded month - on - month. Except for Malaysia and Vietnam, the total demand in other overseas main producing countries rebounded overall [107][110][121]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Tire Production and Sales Situation: The start - up rate of downstream tires increased significantly last week, mainly driven by pre - holiday inventory preparation. The inventory of full - steel tires is at a relatively low level in recent years, while the inventory of semi - steel tires has reached a five - year high. The domestic tire production in December rebounded month - on - month, and the export also increased month - on - month, but the semi - steel tire export was lower than that in 2024. - Replacement Demand: The domestic logistics industry is stable, and the highway freight rate index has increased recently. However, the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term. - Matching Demand - Automobiles: The domestic matching demand may maintain resilience under the stimulation of government subsidies and enterprise preferential policies. The sales volume of domestic passenger cars and commercial vehicles is strong, and the export of automobiles is also strong. However, the inventory pressure of automobiles is increasing. - Matching Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Engineering Machinery: The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the production of engineering machinery are at a high level. However, the long - term growth of new demand for trucks may be limited, and more demand comes from replacement. - Overseas Tire Production: The tire production in Japan is stable, and the tire shipment index in Thailand shows a seasonal increase. - Overseas Tire Demand: The tire import in the United States has increased against the trend, and the production and sales of European passenger cars are stable. - Other Rubber Products Demand: The PMI data in December rebounded to the boom range, and the start - up of other downstream rubber products has further improved [125][130][138]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory was 109,870 tons, an increase of 4,280 tons week - on - week; the 20 - standard rubber warehouse - receipt inventory was 55,339 tons, a decrease of 2,419 tons week - on - week. - Social Inventory: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons from the previous period, with an increase rate of 2.94% [153][155].