钢材：市场驱动不足，钢价震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the steel market adjusted in a volatile manner, presenting a pattern of weakening macro - driving forces and industrial pressure. Overseas market fluctuations led to a decline in risk appetite, pressuring black commodities. Although rebar showed a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand with a faster inventory accumulation rate, the current inventory level is at the lowest in the same lunar period in the past four years, and the overall pressure is controllable. Looking ahead, the seasonal weakening of building material demand continues. With steel mills resuming production, the rebar inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate, and the fundamentals will marginally weaken. Meanwhile, due to the expectations of steel mill复产 and winter - storage replenishment, the cost side still supports steel prices, and prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, the steel market was in a pattern of weakening macro - driving forces and industrial pressure. Overseas market fluctuations led to a decline in risk appetite, pressuring black commodities. Rebar had increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory accumulation rate accelerated, but the inventory pressure was controllable [2]. - In the future, building material demand will continue to weaken seasonally. With steel mills resuming production, the rebar inventory accumulation speed will accelerate, and the fundamentals will weaken marginally. The cost side still supports steel prices, and prices will fluctuate at low levels [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 228.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons or 0.04% [4]. - Rebar mill inventory was 148.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 million tons or 4.43% [4]. - Rebar social inventory was 303.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 million tons or 2.61% [4]. - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 76.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons or 0.14% [4]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 281.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66 million tons or - 1.63% [4]. Futures Market Review The report presented several figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (volume/position) [6][7][9]. Spot Market Review The report included figures on the spot prices of rebar in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 in Shanghai, rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [13][14]. Fundamental Data The report showed figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar and hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [16][20][22][25].