瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260126

Report Summary - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term production and trade enterprise inventory changes of synthetic rubber are expected to be limited - Short - term tire enterprise capacity utilization will run steadily and weakly - For the br2603 contract, beware of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price and it is recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,265 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 335 yuan/ton - The main contract position of synthetic rubber is 91,654 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 35,722 lots - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 8,720 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions is 12,700 yuan/ton, with week - on - week increases ranging from 750 - 850 yuan/ton - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 265 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton - Brent crude oil is at $65.88/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $1.82/barrel; WTI crude oil is at $61.07/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $1.71/barrel - Northeast Asian ethylene price is $700/ton, with no week - on - week change; Naphtha CFR Japan is $565.25/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $1.75/ton - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $1,250/ton, with a week - on - week increase of $50/ton; The mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 950 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Butadiene capacity this week is 159,300 tons/week, with no week - on - week change; Butadiene capacity utilization rate is 69.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points - Butadiene port inventory is 34,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons; The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with an increase of 13,500 tons month - on - month; The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber this week is 76.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.56 percentage points - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber this week is - 1,002 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 281 yuan/ton - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 35,400 tons, with an increase of 500 tons week - on - week - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 29,050 tons, with an increase of 2,150 tons week - on - week; The trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,690 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.56%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points; The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 62.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.9 percentage points - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with an increase of 80,000 pieces - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 46.8 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days; The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 48.53 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons (10.38% month - on - month) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points - As of January 22, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons (1.32% week - on - week) from the previous period [2]