瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - With the alleviation of some negative factors, the sentiment in the bond market has continued to improve, and ultra - long bonds have continued to recover. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need to be improved. In the next stage, facing greater external uncertainty pressure, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs to be further consolidated, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The issuance rhythm of interest - rate bonds in January is stable, and the market's concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds have eased. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为108.180，环比下降0.02%，成交量为59708，环比减少6575；TF主力收盘价为105.850，环比下降0.02%，成交量为47329，环比减少15830；TS主力收盘价为102.392，环比下降0.02%，成交量为29013，环比增加5574；TL主力收盘价为112.510，环比上涨0.2%，成交量为72096，环比减少23480 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.17，环比增加0.00；T2603 - 2606价差为0.00，环比减少0.01；TF2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.05，环比减少0.02；TS2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.02，环比增加0.01；T03 - TL03价差为 - 4.33，环比减少0.22；TF03 - T03价差为 - 2.33，环比减少0.02；TS03 - T03价差为 - 5.79，环比减少0.01；TS03 - TF03价差为 - 3.46，环比增加0.00 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量为246340，前20名空头持仓238490，环比减少1394，前20名多头持仓增加861，前20名净空仓223018，环比增加2034；TF主力持仓量146300，环比减少905，前20名多头持仓143934，环比减少414，前20名空头持仓158196，环比减少570，前20名净空仓14262，环比减少156；TS主力持仓量67591，环比减少1505，前20名多头持仓55294，环比减少466，前20名空头持仓62202，环比减少1720，前20名净空仓6908，环比减少1254；TL主力持仓量141712，环比增加1223，前20名多头持仓141637，环比增加1735，前20名空头持仓150442，环比增加1607，前20名净空仓8805，环比减少128 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 250018.IB(6y）净价为100.532，环比下降0.0007；220025.IB(6y）净价为99.0955，环比上涨0.0262；230014.IB(4y）净价为104.7631，环比上涨0.0133；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.8844，环比上涨0.0008；250017.IB(2y)净价为100.0901，环比下降0.0166；250024.IB(2y)净价为99.9298，环比下降0.0166；210005.IB(17y)净价为126.9367，环比上涨0.0489；210014.IB(18y)净价为123.6704，环比上涨0.0165 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y国债收益率为1.2750%，环比下降0.50bp；3y国债收益率为1.4170%，环比下降0.80bp；5y国债收益率为1.5770%，环比下降1.30bp；7y国债收益率为1.6925%，环比下降0.95bp；10y国债收益率为1.8210%，环比下降0.65bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率为1.4701%，环比上涨5.35bp；Shibor隔夜利率为1.4200%，环比上涨2.40bp；银质押7天利率为1.4800%，环比下降1.99bp；Shibor7天利率为1.5430%，环比上涨5.20bp；银质押14天利率为1.6172%，环比上涨2.51bp；Shibor14天利率为1.5990%，环比上涨2.20bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y LPR利率为3.00%，环比无变化；5y LPR利率为3.5%，环比无变化 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1505亿，到期规模1583亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净投放 - 78亿 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - 证监会正式发布公募基金业绩比较基准指引，中国基金业协会同步发布操作细则，自今年3月1日起施行，新规明确存量产品基准调整过渡期一年；外交部发言人就特朗普访华及美国称允许中国购买委内瑞拉石油表态；全国市场运行和消费促进工作会议强调推动商品消费扩容升级等 [2]. 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - 1/27 09:30关注中国2025年12月及全年规模以上工业企业利润同比；1/29 03:00关注美联储FOMC公布利率决议 [3]