公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.01.19-2026.01.23）：“春季躁动”行情分化，逐步切换至绩优方向-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the equity market last week (2026.01.19 - 2026.01.23), under the environment of continuous regulatory policy suppression and abundant liquidity, the market structure was highly differentiated. Weight - stocks in consumption, medicine, and finance declined significantly due to large - scale ETF redemptions by policy funds, while the growth direction was active, and the commercial space sector regained strength after adjustment. As the earnings period begins, the market may rotate towards profit recovery and valuation repair. With the in - depth implementation of anti - involution policies, the investment growth rates of various industries have turned negative, implying future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under the background of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. This shift in the supply - demand contradiction consolidates the performance inflection points of leading companies in cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also drives the rise of sectors with price - increase logic like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and coal [2][10][12]. - In the fixed - income market last week, short - term bond yields rose, and long - term yields fell. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3.95BP to 1.28%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.26BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield fell 1.65BP to 2.29%, narrowing the term spread. Some funds entered the bond market for safety as the stock market cooled. The central bank governor's statement about potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, along with positive news from the Ministry of Finance and good 7 - year Treasury bond issuance results, contributed to the narrowing of the term spread and the decline of long - term interest rates. There is support for the bond market sentiment, and there are opportunities to capture band trading in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Index performance: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the CSI 300 fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.34%. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 27,972 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [10]. - ETF funds: Overall, ETF funds showed a net outflow trend last week. The CSI 300ETF had the most significant share reduction, with 49.603 billion shares less in the past week. The CSI 1000, SSE 50, SSE STAR 50, and CSI A500 also had share reductions of 23.3 billion, 11.5 billion, 9.6 billion, and 7.9 billion respectively. Since January 15, patient funds have continuously redeemed a basket of ETFs, and during this period, some individual stocks with high weight in the index and actively priced by funds performed better. The market trading volume has shrunk from around 4 trillion to around 2.5 trillion, indicating that policy goals have achieved some results. Future market - overheating adjustment methods may focus on cracking down on hot money, relaxing IPOs, and executive share - sales, and the impact of ETF redemptions on the market may weaken marginally [11]. - External factors: The latest US economic data remains resilient, and the November PCE inflation data is in line with market expectations, with no obvious signs of inflation rebound. This week, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest - rate meeting, and the market will focus on the meeting and the earnings reports of large technology companies, especially on performance guidance and the sustainability of profit realization under high valuations. Overseas geopolitical conflicts are also an important short - term uncertainty factor, and market risk - aversion sentiment will remain before the situation in Iran is resolved [11]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Domestic bond market: Last week, short - term bond yields in the domestic bond market rose, and long - term yields fell, narrowing the term spread. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3.95BP to 1.28%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.26BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield fell 1.65BP to 2.29%. Some funds entered the bond market for safety as the stock market cooled. Positive factors such as the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the Ministry of Finance's press conference, and good 7 - year Treasury bond issuance results contributed to the narrowing of the term spread and the decline of long - term interest rates. There is support for the bond market sentiment, and there are opportunities to capture band trading in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3][13]. - US Treasury yields: Last week, US Treasury yields fluctuated. The 1 - year US Treasury yield fell 2BP to 3.53%, the 2 - year yield rose 1BP to 3.60%, and the 10 - year yield remained flat at 4.24%. Trump's remarks about Greenland led to European selling of US Treasuries and a rise in yields, but his subsequent attitude reversed the trend. US Treasuries will likely continue to fluctuate in the future, with increased unpredictability [14]. - REITs: Last week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 2.17% to 1047.51 points, and all types of REITs closed higher, with data centers, consumption, and warehousing leading the gains. In the primary market, 5 public REITs withdrew or terminated, including 4 initial projects and 1 expansion project [14][15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics On January 23, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," and the Asset Management Association of China issued the "Operation Rules for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds." The official versions are generally consistent with the draft versions, with some adjustments including clarifying restrictions on benchmark changes, exempting money - market funds from disclosing performance - benchmark comparisons, and modifying the requirements for long - term performance evaluation by fund evaluation institutions [16]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and allocates them according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [20][21]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [24]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [24]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and select "dark - horse" stocks. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [27]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index (with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample, considering factors such as relative benchmark index win - rate, product drawdown, style stability, and overall performance competitiveness, and selects 15 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [30][31]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC consumption - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC technology - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35]. - High - End Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC high - end manufacturing - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40][41]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC cyclical - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 5 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [43][44]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and passive index - bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [47]. 3.2.5 Pure - Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdown. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions. The performance benchmark is not clearly stated in a simple formula in the text [52]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income + Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock positions) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. It selects funds with stable bond - end returns, no credit - downgrading, and strong stock - selection ability on the equity end. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects bond funds with an average convertible - bond investment proportion of not less than 60% in the latest period and not less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from the fund product, fund manager, and fund company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdown, risk - adjusted returns, and the manager's timing and bond - selection abilities, and selects 5 funds to form the index [64]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, and investment targets include Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds [67]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type. The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects, with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and limited unit - net - value volatility [68].