林平发展（603284）：“经济晴雨表”再添生力军！特色纸企林平发展即将登陆主板，拟翻倍式扩产破局

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Linping Development, suggesting a strong growth potential due to its strategic focus on high-demand paper products and expansion plans [5][32]. Core Insights - Linping Development is set to double its production capacity through two major projects, significantly enhancing its market position in the paper industry [35][38]. - The company focuses on producing corrugated paper and boxboard, which are critical in the packaging sector, benefiting from the growth of the e-commerce and logistics industries [11][17]. - The report highlights a robust correlation between the paper market and economic growth, with a projected CAGR of approximately 5.0% for paper product consumption from 2019 to 2024 [3][16]. Summary by Sections Product Layout - Linping Development's product strategy emphasizes boxboard and corrugated paper, with annual production capacity of 1.15 million tons, comprising 800,000 tons of boxboard and 350,000 tons of corrugated paper [8][9]. - The revenue structure for 2024 is projected at 1.752 billion for boxboard and 715 million for corrugated paper, indicating a significant contribution to total revenue [9]. Business Model - The company adopts a "circular economy" model, utilizing 70%-80% recycled paper in its production, which reduces reliance on virgin wood and enhances sustainability [25][27]. - Linping Development's gross margins are stable, with corrugated paper margins at 4%-5% and boxboard margins at 11%-12%, benefiting from lower coal prices [28]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a tightening industry landscape, with Linping Development aiming for aggressive growth through capacity expansion amid increasing market concentration [33][48]. - The company is positioned as a leading regional player in Anhui province, holding a market share of 35.65% in 2024, and ranks among the top 30 paper producers nationally [45]. Growth Prospects - Linping Development plans to invest in two expansion projects that will add 1.2 million tons of annual production capacity, effectively doubling its current output [35][38]. - The demand for boxboard and corrugated paper is expected to remain strong, driven by the growth of the e-commerce sector, which is projected to handle 175.1 billion packages in 2024 [17][46].