集运早报-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush shipping. Before the Spring Festival, the falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, as freight rates decline, shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices, which may also trigger a wave of shipping after the Spring Festival, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered, while geopolitical fluctuations need to be noted. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and shorting opportunities for EC2610 on rallies can be considered. [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1726.7, up 0.52%, with a basis of 227.5, trading volume of 565, and open interest of 4225, a decrease of 176. [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1200.2, up 5.44%, with a basis of 754.0, trading volume of 43172, and open interest of 41690, an increase of 541. [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1447.6, up 2.46%, with a basis of 506.6, trading volume of 4483, and open interest of 7324, an increase of 1333. [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1524.0, up 1.91%, with a basis of 430.2, trading volume of 614, and open interest of 1515, an increase of 172. [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.2, up 1.94%, with a basis of 840.0, trading volume of 2148, and open interest of 8565, an increase of 195. [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 70.9. [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6. [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of January 19, 2026, it was 1954.19 points, down 0.11% from the previous period, and up 8.94% from the period before the previous one. [2] - SCFI (European line): Updated weekly, as of January 23, 2026, it was 1595 US dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period and down 2.50% from the period before the previous one. [2] European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. [4] - Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market. [4] Group 4: News and Geopolitical Information - On January 27, a US official said that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed. [4] - On January 27, US President Trump said that the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" as he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement. [4] - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. Iran warned the US that if it launched a military strike, it would attack US aircraft carriers. [4] - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority said that this weekend was a sensitive period. On January 25, it notified several foreign airlines that Israel might enter a "sensitive period" around January 30. It emphasized that if the safety assessment showed that a reasonable safety level could not be ensured, Israel would immediately close its airspace and prioritize the departure of foreign flights. [4] - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House ordered an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could launch a military operation "within one or two days" in theory. [4]