《黑色》日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices remained stable. The night - trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils closed at 3144 yuan and 3304 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened, and the rebar futures strengthened. The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declined seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory, while hot - rolled coil demand declined slightly and inventory continued to decrease. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan. The strategy of long hot - rolled coil and short rebar can be continued [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly, and the position decreased. The supply side saw a slight increase in global shipments, but the shipment center decreased marginally and was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. The demand side showed that the previous period's molten iron production was flat, and the port clearance volume decreased seasonally, indicating that the resumption of molten iron production before the Spring Festival was limited. The inventory at ports continued to increase, and the increase in steel mill inventory slowed down. Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure. Be vigilant about macro - level disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market was temporarily stable. The supply side had pressure on coking profits, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. The demand side saw a slight increase in molten iron production after the New Year, and steel prices rebounded from a low level. The inventory at ports and steel mills increased, while the coking plant inventory decreased. It is expected that the proposed price increase of coke can be implemented, but the market will be loose again after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 yuan. - Coking coal futures oscillated. The supply side saw an increase in daily coal production, and the import volume increased after the New Year. The demand side had limited downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival due to factors such as steel mill losses and safety accidents. The inventory of coal mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 yuan. The strategy of long coking coal and short coke is recommended [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Silicon iron futures oscillated weakly. The supply side had stable production, with most regions' production remaining flat compared to the previous week, and only Gansu seeing a slight decline. The demand side had less - than - expected resumption of molten iron production, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The inventory in factories remained high, and the overall non - steel demand weakened. The cost side had a downward expectation of the settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia. It is expected that the price will be range - bound, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. - Silicon manganese futures oscillated weakly. The supply side had stable supply, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and some factories having shutdown and maintenance plans at the end of the month. The demand side also had less - than - expected resumption of molten iron production, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The inventory was at a relatively high level, and the manganese ore price was supported. It is expected that the price will be range - bound, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan to 3280 yuan, and the 05 contract price increased by 19 yuan to 3143 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 05 contract price increased by 15 yuan to 3302 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2950 yuan, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 24 yuan to 36 yuan, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 24 yuan but was still at - 84 yuan [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron production decreased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.4 to 819.6. The rebar output increased by 9.3 to 199.6, with a growth rate of 4.9%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.9 to 305.4, with a decline rate of 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 to 1257.1, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 to 452.1, with a growth rate of 3.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 to 357.8, with a decline rate of 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, with a decline rate of 2.4%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 to 809.5, with a decline rate of 2.0%. The apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 4.8 to 185.5, with a decline rate of 2.5%, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 310.0, with a decline rate of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 9.8 to 845.7, with a decline rate of 1.1%. The 05 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also changed [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 129.7 to 2530.0, with a decline rate of 4.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 48.4 to 2978.3, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, with a growth rate of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 9.2 to 310.7, with a decline rate of 2.9%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, with a decline rate of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, with a decline rate of 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 211.4 to 16766.53, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 to 9388.8, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and other coke products remained unchanged or changed slightly. The coke 05 contract price decreased by 3 to 1160, with a decline rate of 0.2% [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 9 to 1207, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 3 to 1160, with a growth rate of 0.2% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 63.3, with a decline rate of 0.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 46.9, with a growth rate of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1 [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 to 939.2, with a growth rate of 2.1%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 44.9 to 1177.7, with a growth rate of 4.0% [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions remained stable. The silicon iron 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained at 5330 yuan, and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained at 5680 yuan [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia remained at 5867.8 yuan, and the production profit increased by 18 to - 104. The production cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 18 to 5434.0, and the production profit increased by 18 to - 115 [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicon iron remained at 19.3, and the weekly output of silicon manganese was relatively stable. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 to 77.7, with a growth rate of 7.2% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese calculated by Steel Union showed slight changes. The demand for silicon iron was 0.0, and the demand for silicon manganese increased by 0.1 to 11.6 [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.3 to 6.7, with a growth rate of 5.4%. The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises remained at 37.3 [7].