农产品早报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch prices are supported to remain strong in the short - term by holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - For sugar, international production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, and domestic prices may be affected by global supply and demand in the long - term [4] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline [4] - Egg prices' future trends depend on demand and hen culling data, with different scenarios affecting the second - quarter prices [5] - Apple prices show a split with good - quality apples stable and lower - quality ones weakening, and inventory is gradually decreasing during the Spring Festival [9] - For pigs, short - term price fluctuations exist with supply - demand mismatch possible, and long - term focus is on factors like slaughter rhythm, disease, and policy [9] 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Changes: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Changchun increased by 10 yuan, and the corn basis increased by 7, while the import profit decreased by 20 yuan. The starch basis increased by 17 [2] - Market Analysis: Corn prices may stay strong short - term due to limited supply and stocking demand, and long - term policies are crucial. Starch prices are supported short - term by stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term consumption rhythm matters [2][3] Sugar - Price Changes: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan, the basis in Liuzhou increased by 8, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil both decreased by 11 yuan, with 30 fewer warehouse receipts [4] - Market Analysis: International production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, and domestic prices may be affected by global supply - demand balance in the long - term [4] Cotton/Cotton yarn - Price Changes: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70 yuan, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 38, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 68 yuan [4] - Market Analysis: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline, making it suitable for long - term buying [4] Egg - Price Changes: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Hubei increased by 0.04 yuan, the basis decreased by 1, and the prices of substitute products like white - feather broilers, yellow - feather broilers, and pigs increased [5] - Market Analysis: Spring Festival stocking drives price rebound, and future trends depend on demand and hen culling data [5] Apple - Price Changes: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the national inventory decreased by 23, Shandong inventory increased by 69, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 14 [8][9] - Market Analysis: The trading atmosphere is light, good - quality apples are stable, and inventory is gradually decreasing during the Spring Festival [9] Pig - Price Changes: From 2026/01/20 to 2026/01/26, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10 yuan, and the price in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.30 yuan, while the basis remained unchanged [9] - Market Analysis: Short - term price fluctuations exist with supply - demand mismatch possible, and long - term focus is on slaughter rhythm, disease, and policy [9]