原木期货日报-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot market is firm, with some specifications in short supply and rising prices in Jiangsu due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, the weak demand limits the upside potential. The log futures valuation was slightly repaired and rebounded last week. Considering the heavy rainfall in the North Island of New Zealand that may affect log shipments, it is advisable to participate in long positions on dips in the range of 750 - 800 in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On January 26th, compared with January 23rd, the prices of log 2601 and log 2603 remained unchanged; log 2605 decreased by 5.5 to 783, a decline of 0.70%; log 2607 decreased by 4.0 to 795, a decline of 0.50%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged at -36.0 [2] - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various types of logs at Rizhao Port, Taicang Port, and Rizhao Port's spruce 11.8 remained unchanged from January 23rd to January 26th. The latest foreign quotation for medium A radiata pine of 4 - meter length was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, and for 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 27th was 6.948, a slight decrease from 6.950 on January 26th, with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 752.82 yuan, a decrease of 0.18 yuan from the previous day, also with a change of 0% [2] Supply: Monthly - In December compared with November, the port shipping volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, an increase of 14.8 million cubic meters or 7.82%. The number of departing ships was 55.0, an increase of 6.0 or 12.24% [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 23rd, compared with January 16th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 249 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8 million cubic meters or 3.11%. In Shandong, the inventory was 188.80 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.2 million cubic meters or 1.67%. In Jiangsu, the inventory was 32.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.1 million cubic meters or 19.75% [2][3] Demand: (Weekly) - As of January 23rd, compared with January 16th, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.18 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.02 million cubic meters. In Shandong, it was 0.37 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.24 million cubic meters or 11%. In Jiangsu, it was 1.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.34 million cubic meters or 15% [3] Forecast of Arriving Ships - From January 26th to February 1st, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 7, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 13%. The total arrival volume was about 21.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.7 million cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 11% [3]