建信期货国债日报-20260127

Report Information - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals and commodity futures rallied, suppressing the sentiment in the bond market. Coupled with the tight balance of funds, most treasury bond futures closed slightly lower [8]. - The interest rates of major-term spot bonds in the interbank market fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250016 dropped by 0.5bp to 1.825% as of 16:30 [9]. - The tax period is coming to an end, but the funds remain in a tight balance. The supply of government bonds is large this week, and there is a cross-month pressure. However, the central bank is likely to provide support. The net repurchase of reverse repos in the open market today was 20.78 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the interbank market rose by 1.91bp to 1.417%, and the 7-day fund rate rose by 8bp to 1.5738%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped to 1.59% [10]. - January is a stage where the negative factors in the bond market are gradually materializing. The new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented on December 31, 2025, which may ease the short-term redemption and selling pressure. In addition, January will be a month with large supply under the background of front-loaded fiscal stimulus, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure [11]. - The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut in the short term is low. The market may enter a policy observation period again. However, the central bank officials also said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the easing orientation remains unchanged. The stage with large supply-demand mismatch pressure in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of this month's economic data, there will be a data vacuum period of up to 1.5 months. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean that the market has entered a policy observation period. The expectation of easing may not significantly heat up before the Two Sessions in March. The short-term positive factors have been realized, but there are no obvious negative factors, so the market may remain volatile [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Precious metals and commodity futures rallies suppressed the bond market sentiment, and most treasury bond futures closed slightly lower. The interest rates of major-term spot bonds in the interbank market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250016 dropped by 0.5bp to 1.825% as of 16:30 [8][9]. - Funding Situation: The tax period is coming to an end, but the funds remain in a tight balance. The supply of government bonds is large this week, and there is a cross-month pressure. However, the central bank is likely to provide support. The net repurchase of reverse repos in the open market today was 20.78 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the interbank market rose by 1.91bp to 1.417%, and the 7-day fund rate rose by 8bp to 1.5738%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped to 1.59% [10]. - Conclusion: January is a stage where the negative factors in the bond market are gradually materializing. The new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented on December 31, 2025, which may ease the short-term redemption and selling pressure. In addition, January will be a month with large supply under the background of front-loaded fiscal stimulus, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure. The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut in the short term is low. The market may enter a policy observation period again. However, the central bank officials also said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the easing orientation remains unchanged. The stage with large supply-demand mismatch pressure in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of this month's economic data, there will be a data vacuum period of up to 1.5 months. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean that the market has entered a policy observation period. The expectation of easing may not significantly heat up before the Two Sessions in March. The short-term positive factors have been realized, but there are no obvious negative factors, so the market may remain volatile [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially issued the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, and the Asset Management Association of China simultaneously issued the operating rules, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026. The new regulations focus on four aspects: accurate portrait, full-process supervision, linking with compensation, and information transparency, aiming at the pain points in the industry such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes". The new regulations specify a one-year transition period for the adjustment of the benchmarks of existing products [13]. - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Xi emphasized that in the current volatile international situation, China and Brazil, as important members of the Global South, should firmly stand on the right side of history, better safeguard the common interests of the two countries and the Global South, and jointly maintain the core position of the United Nations and international fairness and justice [13]. - Regarding the question of whether US President Donald Trump will visit China in April, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that there is currently no information to provide. In response to the US statement that it will "allow" China to buy Venezuelan oil but not at a specific price, Guo Jiakun said that Venezuela is a sovereign country and has the right to independently choose its cooperation partners [13]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said in an interview that while focusing on domestic growth stabilization, the People's Bank of China will continue to promote the reform of global financial governance and international financial cooperation in 2026, continue to promote the high-level opening up of the financial service industry and financial markets, and orderly promote the internationalization of the RMB [13]. - Shenzhen issued the management measures for affordable housing for sale, clarifying that the affordable housing for sale will be strictly managed in a closed manner, and it is prohibited to change it into commercial housing in any way. In addition, according to the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China, since January 23, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing (including "residential and commercial buildings") has been adjusted to no less than 30% [14]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the policy combination path has become clearer: the central bank has lowered the cost of funds through various tools, and the fiscal department has "lightened the burden" on households and enterprises through interest subsidies, subsidies, and guarantees. Banks are more inclined to gradually reduce high-interest long-term deposit products and turn to lower-cost and more flexible-term liability sources; at the same time, they launch some structured products with seemingly higher returns but with certain conditions. Everyone faces three choices: continue to deposit, accept low returns and high security; allocate medium- and low-volatility assets such as treasury bonds and bond funds; or enter the equity and structured product markets [14]. 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides the trading data of treasury bond futures on January 26, including the settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of each contract [6]. - Money Market: The report provides the data of the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate, and interbank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [28][32]. - Derivatives Market: The report provides the data of the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34].