建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rally in polyolefin prices is mainly driven by geopolitical risks in the crude oil market, while the supply - demand structure has not changed substantially. With downstream industries entering the holiday season and weakening procurement, polyolefins have weak internal drivers, and there is a risk of price correction after the cost - driven sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation. If crude oil prices strengthen further, it may support polyolefin prices at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 6935 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (1.17%), with a trading volume of 610,000 lots and a decrease of 4043 lots in positions to 515,013 lots. PP2605 closed at 6737 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (1.35%), with an increase of 22,200 lots in positions to 521,100 lots. The US's frequent threats of military intervention in the Iranian situation have disrupted crude oil supply, causing crude oil to rise by over 4% during the day, and polyolefins rebounded following the cost fluctuations. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to fewer maintenance, but some supplies were still structurally tight. Polyethylene supply became more relaxed due to import arrivals and new production capacity expectations. High - priced raw materials generally suppressed downstream procurement, and although there was still rigid demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, overall operations were cautious, and some small and medium - sized factories had entered the holiday [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On January 26, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 550,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton increase (10.00%) from the previous working day, compared to 450,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices mostly rose, with LLDPE prices in North China at 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, in East China at 6830 - 7100 yuan/ton, and in South China at 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6320 - 6380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories' willingness to replenish inventory increased, and propylene producers' offers rose significantly, with some real - order auctions having premiums, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. PP market prices also rose, with the mainstream price of drawn PP in North China at 6490 - 6590 yuan/ton, in East China at 6520 - 6680 yuan/ton, and in South China at 6470 - 6680 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][9][13]