贵金属日评-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to be strong, but the large inflow of speculative funds has also increased price volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but control position sizes, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4] - Geopolitical risks, the safe - haven demand brought by the US mid - term elections, the liquidity premium from global central banks' joint easing, and the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate will drive the price of London gold to 5300 - 5500 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The price of London silver is expected to rise to 130 - 145 US dollars per ounce in 2026, London platinum to 3000 - 3200 US dollars per ounce, and London palladium to 2200 - 2350 US dollars per ounce [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals, and the weakening of the US dollar index has enhanced the pricing currency factor. As a result, external precious metal prices have continued to rise. London gold has broken through the 5100 US dollars per ounce mark, and industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium have seen larger increases. The adjustment risk in the precious metal market was fully released in late December 2025 [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Due to Trump's new policy focus shifting to the military, the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the central banks' shift from balance - sheet reduction to expansion, the US dollar index will continue to be weak. This, along with other factors, will push the price of London gold to 5300 - 5500 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The silver price may reach higher levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and low inventory. The price of London silver is expected to reach 130 - 145 US dollars per ounce in 2026 [6] - The price of London platinum is expected to reach 3000 - 3200 US dollars per ounce in 2026, and the price of London palladium is expected to be 2200 - 2350 US dollars per ounce [6] 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au(T + D), gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it reaches and advances a trade agreement with China. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau encouraged Canadians to buy domestic products without directly responding to the threat [18] - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasaka Sanae said the government will take necessary measures against speculative market movements. The yen's sharp depreciation near the 160 mark against the US dollar led to speculation about US - Japan joint intervention [18] - In January, the US business activity remained stable. The improvement in new orders was offset by a weak labor market and concerns about cost increases due to tariffs. The preliminary US composite PMI in January was 52.8, and the final University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 56.4, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping to 4.0% [18] - An Iranian senior official warned that any attack would be regarded as a full - scale war. Trump said the US has a fleet heading to Iran but hopes not to use it, and he also warned Iran not to kill protesters or restart the nuclear program [19]