建信期货棉花日报-20260127

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing a volatile correction. In the short - term, with limited changes in the fundamentals, it will be in a range - bound adjustment, and the strategy is mainly to go long at low levels [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Domestic market: The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a volatile correction. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashi machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/impurity within 3 is mostly at CF05 + 950 or above. The cotton yarn market has average trading, and the grey cloth market is in the final stage with a weak trading atmosphere. The 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton planting area reduction expectation has been partially factored in, and the demand for some medium - and high - count varieties is stable [7][8] - Overseas market: As of the week ending January 15, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 93,500 tons, a weekly increase of 21% and a 119% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Weekly shipments were 42,600 tons, a weekly increase of 20% and a 26% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. However, the external market trend is still weak [8] 3.2 Industry News - According to CFTC, as of the week ending January 20, the non - commercial long positions of CFTC US cotton futures funds were 92,421 (+3,587) contracts, increasing for the fourth consecutive week; short positions were 118,245 (+1,980) contracts, increasing for the second consecutive week; the total ICE positions were 338,853 (+11,060) contracts, increasing for the eighth consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 7.6%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 7.2 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [9] - According to the China Cotton Inspection Network, as of January 25, 2026, the national cumulative inspection was 31,695,452 bales, a total of 7.1547 million tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 31,283,967 bales, a total of 7.0625 million tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 243,727 bales, a total of 54,200 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple figures are provided, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar against RMB, and US dollar against Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][17][18]