建信期货生猪日报-20260127

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] 2. Core View - On the supply side, until April, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase. Second - round fattening pen utilization is currently higher year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the current slaughter rhythm is slightly slow. On the demand side, as the spot price rebounds to a high and the Spring Festival approaches, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumer demand is average, and the consumption of group meals may decrease. The sales of white - striped pigs are poor, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. Overall, the spot market is mainly in a shock state, and the 03/05 futures contracts are mainly in a weak shock state [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 26th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest was 11,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,440 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,258 lots to 345,665 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 23, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan/kg week - on - week [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - Profit: As of January 23, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 73 yuan/head, an increase of 47.7 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 38.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.8 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - Slaughter weight: In the week of January 22, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.89 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%, a decrease of 0.81 kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%, and an increase of 7.38 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 6.07% [13]. - Price difference: In the week of January 22, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.64 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.16 yuan/jin week - on - week [13]. - Fattening cost: The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - Annual data: In 2025, the number of pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million year - on - year, a growth of 2.4%. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 4.1%, reaching a record high [13].