永安期货集运早报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, pay attention to spot prices and actual rush shipping. Before the Chinese New Year, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies has relatively high safety. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to announce price increases to stabilize prices and may trigger a wave of rush shipping after the Chinese New Year, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and opportunities to short on rallies can be considered, while also being aware of geopolitical disturbances [3][15]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to operate with caution and generally adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and opportunities to short EC2610 on rallies can be considered [3][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2602 closed at 1726.7 with a 0.52% change, EC2604 at 1200.2 with a 5.44% change, EC2606 at 1447.6 with a 2.46% change, EC2608 at 1524.0 with a 1.91% change, and EC2610 at 1114.2 with a 1.94% change [2][14]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of EC2604 was 43172, and its open interest was 41690 with an increase of 541. The open interest of EC2602 was 4225 with a decrease of 176, EC2606 was 7324 with an increase of 1533, and EC2610 was 8565 with an increase of 195 [2][14]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week increase of 270.9. The spread of EC2504 - 2606 was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6 [2][14]. - Indicators: The SCHIS index was 1954.19 on January 19, 2026, with a - 0.11% change from the previous period and an 8.94% change from two periods ago. The SCFI (European line) was 1676 on January 23, 2026, with a - 4.83% change from the previous period and a - 2.50% change from two periods ago [2][14]. 3.2 European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market [4][16]. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market [4][16]. 3.3 News - On January 27, US officials stated that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed [5][17]. - On January 27, President Trump said that he had sent a "huge fleet" to the region. He thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement, but the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" [5][17]. - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah stated that it would not stand by in the face of military actions against Iran. Iran warned the US that it would attack US aircraft carriers if the US launched a military strike [5][17]. - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority announced that this weekend was a sensitive period. It notified multiple foreign airlines that if safety could not be guaranteed, Israel might close its airspace on January 30, and foreign flights would be prioritized for departure [5][17]. - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group could launch military action against Iran within two days. On January 27, US officials said that the carrier strike group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean [5][17].