Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [2][31]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure, with a strategy of shorting at around 800 [3]. - Palm oil may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5][14]. - A - share market has increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend, with different strategies for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [13][14]. - Copper prices may be affected by CL premium and inventory, with a strategy of holding long positions lightly [18]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. - Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. - PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options [95]. - Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Zinc: Zinc prices were strong due to a weak US dollar. Mine shortages supported prices, and refined zinc supply pressure eased. Demand improved, and inventories had room for replenishment. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [2][31]. - Methanol: Methanol futures were oscillating strongly, with a weakening basis. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices were under pressure due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - Palm Oil: Palm oil prices may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - Gold: Gold prices were supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5]. Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market had increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held; silver can be bought on dips; platinum and palladium can be bought on dips [13][14]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Copper prices were affected by CL premium and inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [18]. - Alumina: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [28][31]. - Tin: Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - Steel: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure [53]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - Coke: Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - Manganese Silicon: Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - Meal: Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - Hog: Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - Corn: Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - Sugar: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - Egg: Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - Oil: Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - Red Date: Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - Apple: Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - PX: PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - PTA: PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - Bottle - chip: Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the money put options [95]. - Pure Benzene: Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - Styrene: Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - LLDPE: LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - PP: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - Methanol: Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - Caustic Soda: Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - PVC: PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - Urea: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Glass: Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Natural Rubber: Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - Synthetic Rubber: Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120].
广发早知道：汇总版-20260127
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-27 02:30