原油成品油早报-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai monthly spread opened low and then strengthened slightly. Gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated. European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From January 20 - 26, 2026, BRENT decreased by $0.15, DUBAI decreased by $0.10, SC increased by 15.40, OMAN decreased by $0.34, domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, domestic diesel increased by 28.00, Singapore 380CST spread increased by 2.25, and HH natural gas increased by 22.300 [3][17] 2. Daily News - Iran warned the US that it will attack US aircraft carriers if subjected to a military strike. Israel's Civil Aviation Authority said this weekend is a sensitive period. Trump believes the Iranian situation is "rapidly changing" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement. Lebanon's Hezbollah will not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. An Iranian official said that if the US launches an aggression, Iran's response will not be limited to US military bases. The EU officially approved a plan to completely stop importing Russian gas by the end of 2027 [3][4] 3. Inventory - In the week of January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 0.85% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]