沪铜产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has a slight decline, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The port inventory has slightly rebounded with the arrival of imports, but it is still at a relatively low level historically. On the supply side, although the raw material supply is tight, domestic copper production remains at a relatively high level due to seasonal factors, with a relatively sufficient supply. On the demand side, some downstream buyers adopt a strategy of purchasing for rigid needs and stocking up at low prices, but the high copper price and the traditional off - season limit the demand, resulting in average trading sentiment in the spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.71, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1442, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has a slight increase. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 102,600 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,073 dollars/ton, down 126 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 229,757 lots, up 778 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 69,801 lots, down 8,825 lots. The LME copper inventory is 170,525 tons, down 1,175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 44,725 tons, down 1,550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 144,908 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,370 yuan/ton, down 1,065 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 22 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,230 yuan/ton, down 1,785 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 71.07 dollars/ton, down 5.01 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,710 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 93,410 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,590 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,950 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8278.814 billion yuan, up 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.85%, down 1.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.38%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 27.02%, up 0.0116; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.71, up 0.1442 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership reached 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle ownership; the pure - electric vehicle ownership was 30.22 million, accounting for 68.74% of the new energy vehicle ownership. In 2025, the newly registered new energy vehicles were 12.93 million, accounting for 49.38% of the newly registered vehicles, an increase of 1.68 million or 14.93% compared with 2024. Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon, including measures to expand inbound consumption, the launch of a national digital trade demonstration zone, optimization of the old - for - new program for consumer goods, promotion of consumption of large - ticket durable goods such as cars and home appliances, a pilot reform of car circulation consumption, and the upcoming launch of a national - level overseas comprehensive service platform. The exchange has taken measures to cool down the commodity futures market. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits and margin ratios for some futures contracts. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has also issued a risk reminder letter. The People's Bank of China has emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies. The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded [2].