瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, with continued destocking in the industry. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 179,600 yuan/ton, up 13,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 152,395 hands, up 2,264 hands; the position of the main contract was 422,433 hands, up 5,714 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 3,480 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 29,166 hands/ton, up 520 hands [2] - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,500 yuan/ton, down 9,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 169,000 yuan/ton, down 9,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 7,100 yuan/ton, down 22,920 yuan [2] - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 3,637 US dollars/ton, up 1,627 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 17,675 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Industry Situation: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume was 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2%; the monthly output of power batteries was 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh; the price of manganese - acid lithium was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 138,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium was 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 211,500 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 192,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2] - Downstream and Application Situation: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 207,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 60%, down 3%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 47.94%, up 0.45%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000 vehicles, unchanged; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.615 million vehicles, up 1.331 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 94.78%, up 1.90%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying was 74.30%, up 1.89% [2] - Option Situation: The total call position was 107,623 contracts, up 5,102 contracts; the total put position was 174,081 contracts, up 9,635 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of the total position was 161.75%, up 1.3485%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.66%, down 0.0510% [2] 2. Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership reached 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle ownership; the new registration of new energy vehicles in 2025 was 12.93 million, accounting for 49.38% of the new - registered vehicles, an increase of 1.68 million or 14.93% compared with 2024 [2] - Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon. Measures to expand inbound consumption will be introduced, the construction of national digital trade demonstration zones will be launched, the implementation of consumer goods trade - in will be optimized, a pilot reform of automobile circulation consumption will be carried out, and a national - level overseas comprehensive service platform will be launched soon [2] - Haike Xinyuan signed a long - term cooperation agreement with Shenzhen BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. on January 23, 2026. The agreement is valid for 3 years, and Haike Xinyuan will supply at least 100,000 tons of products to BYD's Hubei project by pipeline each year [2] - In 2025, Chongqing's foreign trade imports and exports reached 800.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The exports of "new three items" (electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries) increased by 73.5% [2] 3. Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract opened low and moved high, closing up 1.5%. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day [2] - On the fundamentals, the price of lithium ore at the raw material end continued to be strong as the lithium carbonate price strengthened. The smelters had sufficient raw material inventories and were more willing to wait and see. On the supply side, the willingness of lithium salt plants to ship and produce increased as the lithium price strengthened. The domestic supply was temporarily stable, but some smelters might enter the maintenance cycle as the long holiday approached, and the output might decrease. On the demand side, the downstream generally maintained on - demand procurement, but as February approached, the pre - holiday inventory demand increased, and the trading sentiment in the spot market improved [2] - In the options market, the put - to - call ratio of the position was 161.75%, up 1.3485% month - on - month. The sentiment in the options market was bearish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines were above the 0 axis, and the green bars converged [2]