瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cold wave causing delays in resource arrivals at ports, the inventory at East China ports decreased week-on-week last week, but it remains at a high level compared to the same period. From late January to early February, multiple plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Shanghai Petrochemical will restart, and the supply and demand of pure benzene in China may shift from a tight balance to a loose balance. The restart of the 450,000 - tonne benzene - ethylene plant of Sinochem Quanzhou is planned, and the start - up rate is expected to increase slightly; the start - up rate of caprolactam is expected to remain low; the overall demand for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid is expected to increase slightly. In terms of cost, market concerns about the Iranian situation have subsided, the faulty oil fields in Kazakhstan are recovering, and international oil prices have fallen from their highs. After the previous macro - level benefits have been digested, the expectation of loose supply and demand in the later market will put some pressure on the market. The daily range of BZ2603 is expected to be around 5,880 - 6,050 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton; the settlement price was 6,009 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 23,312 lots, a decrease of 7,885 lots; the open interest was 30,853 lots, a decrease of 1,296 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6,025 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 5,940 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 5,900 yuan/ton; in the Northeast region, it was 5,952 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions remained unchanged. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 768 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 765.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.92 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.36 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars/barrel; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 573.25 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 72.37%, a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the weekly output was 425,300 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons. The production cost was 5,017.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.8 yuan/ton; the production profit was 446 yuan/ton, an increase of 77 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of benzene - ethylene was 69.63%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 76.17%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 88.44%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 87.61%, an increase of 14.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 69.1%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the start - up rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 1.89% to 72.37%, and the start - up rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 3.42% to 54.17%. From January 17th to 23rd, the weighted start - up rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.03% to 75.53%. As of January 26th, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 305,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.69%. BZ2603 fell 1.53% to close at 5,990 yuan/ton. Last week, the start - up rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene declined to varying degrees, and the domestic pure benzene output decreased week - on - week. The start - up rates of benzene - ethylene, caprolactam, and phenol decreased slightly, but the start - up rate of aniline increased significantly, driving the weighted start - up rate of pure benzene downstream to increase week - on - week. From January 16th to 22nd, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 77 yuan/ton to 446 yuan/ton [2].