瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to high开工 rates, high inventories, weak demand, and limited cost - side support. The V2605 daily K - line should focus on the support around 4860 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4911 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the trading volume is 1160706 lots, down 162779 lots; the open interest is 1060308 lots, down 34793 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1027821 lots, down 47257 lots; the short positions are 1126948 lots, down 37426 lots; the net long positions are - 99127 lots, down 9831 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4875 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4732.69 yuan/ton, up 76.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4930 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4758.12 yuan/ton, up 93.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2715 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2543 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 402 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 433 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, down 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80%, up 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, down 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 tons, up 1.49 tons; the inventory in East China is 52.74 tons, up 1.12 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.91 tons, up 0.37 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.15%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.86%, up 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 21.73%, up 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.73%, up 1.27 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average national cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased, and the profit decreased to - 800 yuan/ton; the average national cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased, and the profit increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3]