宏观利率周报（20260119-20260123）：国内降准降息仍有空间，全球债市波动加剧-20260127

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is reported at 4.5% year-on-year, indicating a gradual decline in economic growth[1] - Fixed asset investment shows a rare negative year-on-year change of -3.8% in December, while retail sales decreased by 0.12% month-on-month, weaker than seasonal expectations[1] - Only the dollar-denominated exports in December showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% supported by AI capital expenditure and competitive advantages in Chinese manufacturing[1] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank indicates there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, suggesting a potential bottoming out of interest rates if yields continue to decline[2] - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly retreated to 1.8298% amid excess MLF renewals and rising overseas risk aversion[1] Market Reactions - The global bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant sell-offs observed, particularly in Japan where the 40-year bond yield surpassed 4% for the first time in over 30 years[2] - The U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields have risen by at least 4 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across major global bond markets[2] Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China has announced adjustments to the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30%[2] - The implementation period for personal consumption loan interest subsidies has been extended to December 31, 2026, with expected effective rates potentially dropping to around 2%[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity, unanticipated changes in monetary policy, and uncertainties in institutional and individual investment behaviors[3]