铂钯金期货日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium to long term. The uncertainties in South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the market trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium" [2]. - For the operating range, the upper resistance level of London platinum is $2,800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $2,600 per ounce. The upper resistance level of London palladium is $2,100 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1,900 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 705.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 34.10 yuan. The closing price of the palladium main contract was 523.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 11.10 yuan. - The main - contract positions of platinum were 10,387 hands, a decrease of 277 hands. The main - contract positions of palladium were 3,179 hands, an increase of 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 685.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 47.55 yuan. The average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 480.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 2.00 yuan. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 13.45 yuan per gram, a decrease. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 43.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 13.10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966, a decrease of 243. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003, a decrease of 342. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons. The total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons. The total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.50, a decrease of 0.78. The real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 1.92%, a decrease of 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index was 16.09, an increase of 0.45 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying heavy troops to Iran and many ships are moving towards Iran. A 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran will soon take effect, and a new round of sanctions has been imposed on multiple entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. - Trump said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base in Greenland is located, not involving the US taking over Greenland entirely, but making US military facilities such as the Pituffik Space Base under US sovereign control. - Multiple Democratic US senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, greatly increasing the possibility of a partial "shutdown" of the federal government at the end of January due to lack of funds. - Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve Chairman as early as this week. Rick Rieder, an executive of global asset management giant BlackRock, has quickly become the top candidate, with the probability of his nomination rising from 4% to about 50%. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - January 30, 21:30, US PPI year - on - year (%) - January 28, 02:00, US M2 money supply - January 29, 03:00, Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement - January 29, 21:30, US November trade balance (imports and exports) [2]