瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Amid complex global geopolitical situations, gold, as a preferred safe - haven asset, may continue to be boosted. Under the assumption of inflation and employment data stabilizing, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to adopt a dip - buying strategy, while being cautious of short - term high - level pullback risks. The upper resistance for London gold is $5100/oz, and the lower support is $4900/oz; for London silver, the upper resistance is $110/oz, and the lower support is $90/oz [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1148.380 yuan/gram, up 5.1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 28300 yuan/kg, up 1093 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold was 401,545 hands, up 5583 hands; that of Shanghai silver was 1,038,738 hands, up 72,838 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 217,484 hands, up 1664 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 25,473 hands, down 12,972 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 103,029 kg, unchanged; that of Shanghai silver was 544,244 kg, down 29,566 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1144.14 yuan/gram, down 0.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 28,388 yuan/kg, up 896 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.24 yuan/gram, down 5.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kg, down 197 yuan [2] 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1086.53 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,974.40 tons, down 115.58 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 244,770 contracts, down 6468 contracts; for silver, they were 25,214 contracts, down 6846 contracts. The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the annual total demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 97.04, down 0.46; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, down 0.02% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.15, up 0.06; the CBOE gold volatility index was 32.70, up 2.69. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.37, down 0.03; the gold - silver ratio was 46.45, down 3.52 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump said the US was deploying troops to Iran and many ships were moving towards Iran, and a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. The US also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump said the US expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland. Several Democratic senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, with Rick Rieder's nomination probability rising from 4% to about 50%. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 15.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 84.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 0.4% [2] 6. Key Events to Watch - January 28, 02:00: US M2 money supply; January 29, 03:00: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; January 29, 21:30: US November trade balance (imports and exports); January 30, 21:30: US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]