瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term production enterprise inventory and trading enterprise inventory are expected to change little. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to run steadily and weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR2603 contract in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 13,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 79,495, a decrease of 12,159. The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 9,320 tons, an increase of 600 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions was 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 145 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan. Brent crude oil was 65.59 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.29 dollars; WTI crude oil was 60.63 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.44 dollars. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was 573.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 8 dollars; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1270 dollars/ton, an increase of 20 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 11,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 159,300 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port butadiene inventory was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit was 53.6%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The monthly production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the manufacturer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2150 tons; the trader inventory was 6350 tons, a decrease of 1690 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of all - steel tires was 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires was 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 46.8 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 48.53 days, an increase of 0.61 days. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2] Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises increased production slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most enterprises maintained stable production. All - steel tire enterprises faced greater shipment pressure, and some controlled production moderately, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. In December, the production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of January 22, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2]