瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260127

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts is more than the output of restored capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly last week, while the port inventory increased slightly. The MTO industry's average weekly operating rate continued to decline last week, and there is an expected decline in the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate. The MA2605 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 2250 - 2350 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 846,819 lots, a decrease of 8,731 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 126,378 lots, a decrease of 3,535 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,695, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1805 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 39 yuan/ton. The CFR price at China's main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia is - 50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 6.52 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 1.17 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 102.53 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.22 tons, an increase of 3.58 tons. The methanol import profit is - 13.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, an increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.92%, a decrease of 1.19% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.51%, an increase of 0.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.25%, an increase of 1.51%; the operating rate of acetic acid is 80.67%, an increase of 2.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, an increase of 0.44%; the operating rate of olefins is 84.29%, a decrease of 1.48%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1003 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.35%, an increase of 0.71%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.37%, an increase of 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 27.77%, an increase of 2.89%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.78%, an increase of 2.88% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. As of January 21, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78% [2].