瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract EC2604 closing down 0.11% and the far - month contracts down between -1% and -1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1859.31, down 94.88 points from last week, a 4.9% week - on - week decline. The cancellation of full - refund VAT for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades and the spot support weakens, causing the futures price to decline. China's foreign trade improved significantly in December, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026. Spot freight rates saw some shipping companies slightly increase prices, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April. The current freight market is highly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price: 1193.900, down 1.3; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1442.2, down 3.4 - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: -248.30, down 0.90; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: -334.50, down 10.70 - EC contract basis: 665.41, up 6.30 - EC main contract open interest: 38647, down 3043 [1] 3.2 Spot Prices - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1859.31, down 94.88; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1294.32, down 10.95 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1457.86, down 116.26; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), up 1.62 - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1208.75, down 1.10; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1588.19, up 5.59 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1762.00, up 18.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1612.00, unchanged - Average charter price (Panamax): unchanged; Average charter price (Capesize): 19318.00, down 480.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The Chairman of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament has not decided whether to resume the approval process of the EU - US trade agreement, and the decision will be made later. The committee will hold a meeting on February 23 - 24. - India and the EU are close to reaching a landmark free - trade agreement, with India planning to cut the import tariff on EU cars from the current maximum of 110% to 40%. Electric vehicles will not enjoy tariff exemptions in the first five years. - The probability of a new US government shutdown by the end of January has soared to nearly 80%, up from less than 10% last Friday. If the Senate fails to pass the appropriation legislation by midnight on Friday, several federal departments will face partial shutdowns [1] 3.4 Key Points of Attention - Germany's February Gfk consumer confidence index at 15:00 on January 28 [1]