农产品早报-20260128

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [1] - Report Team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Corn - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Changchun remained at 2190, in Jinzhou at 2300, in Weifang increased by 10 to 2270, and in Shekou remained at 2440. The basis increased by 10 to 17, and the trade profit and import profit changed to 0 - 325 [2]. - Market Analysis: Market sentiment was slightly disturbed this week. Port spot prices first declined and then rose, remaining at last week's level. In the short - term, due to the strong price - holding and reluctance to sell in the producing areas, supply increase is limited. With low inventory in the channels and downstream stocking expectations, corn prices are expected to be moderately strong. In the long - term, focus on structural changes, import policies, and domestic auction policies [2]. Starch - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, in Weifang at 2820. The basis increased by 58 to 155, and the processing profit decreased by 2 to - 92 [2]. - Market Analysis: The deep - processing industry is stable with a slight increase in the startup rate. Downstream seasonal stocking has accelerated inventory reduction. In the short - term, festival stocking expectations and inventory reduction support strong enterprise quotes. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm, and whether inventory continues to decline after the seasonal peak will be the key factor for starch pricing [3] Group 3: Sugar - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Liuzhou decreased by 10 to 5330, in Nanning remained at 5270, in Kunming decreased by 10 to 5155. The basis decreased by 6 to 162, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 22 to 156, from Brazil decreased by 22 to 333, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 322 to 14169 [4]. - Market Analysis: In the international market, for the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. In the domestic market, short - term raw sugar supply pressure is reduced, and the futures price can refer to the domestic sugar spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Cotton - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25 to 15535, the import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 183 to 11313 [4]. - Market Analysis: The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable domestic consumption - promotion policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term investment [4]. Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 3 to - 163, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 27 to - 801 [4]. Group 5: Eggs - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Hebei increased by 0.11 to 3.84, in Liaoning by 0.11 to 3.78, in Shandong by 0.10 to 4.00, in Henan by 0.10 to 4.10, in Hubei by 0.09 to 3.93. The basis increased by 70 to 580 [5]. - Market Analysis: Recent Spring Festival stocking has boosted the spot price, and the pace of culling laying hens has slowed. In the first half of the week, sales were fast, but later, the terminal's acceptance of high prices was limited. If the spot price drops and stimulates farmers to cull old hens, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter; otherwise, the capacity reduction will slow down, and the second - quarter contract will be under pressure [6] Group 6: Apples - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00. The 1 - month basis decreased by 30 to 631.00, the 5 - month basis decreased by 38 to - 604.00, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 47 to 523.00 [9]. - Market Analysis: The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. Traders are less active in purchasing from fruit farmers. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have loosened. As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the inventory removal rate is 14.06% [10] Group 7: Pigs - Price Data: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Henan Kaifeng remained at 13.13, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.05 to 12.90, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.10 to 13.07, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.20 to 13.50, in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.15 to 13.35. The basis increased by 180 to 1845 [10]. - Market Analysis: The weekend spot price first strengthened and then weakened. Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, but it is difficult to maintain high prices. The overall enthusiasm of small - scale farmers for slaughter is average. With the approaching Laba Festival, the demand in the north is supported. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may still be short - term supply - demand mismatches. The medium - term pressure remains, and there is support for a long - term inflection point. The futures market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Pay continuous attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies [10]