Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are in a state of wide - based index range - bound and theme - industry structural upward movement, while bond futures are in a shock pattern; in the commodity futures market, different varieties such as metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [7][10]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Zinc: Overseas smelting costs have increased due to the rise in natural gas prices in Europe and the United States. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side has improved, and the global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with support at around 24,000 yuan, and a long - term long - at - low strategy is recommended [2][31]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is in a strong shock, and the basis is weak. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The inventory in inland factories has decreased, but high production restricts the rebound space. The inventory accumulation in ports is low, but the weak MTO demand suppresses the price rebound. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when geopolitical tensions ease [3][100]. - Iron Ore: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to factors such as the reversal of support factors, the lower - than - expected resumption of pig iron production, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 yuan [3][52]. - Palm Oil: It may try to break through 9,300 yuan. The market should pay attention to the impact of inventory changes on the disk trend. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are strongly influenced by the rise of Malaysian palm oil [4][79]. - Gold: The continuous weakening of the US dollar drives the gold price to a new high. The long - term upward space of the gold price is supported by factors such as the slowdown of employment and inflation in the United States, the long - term easing expectation, trade frictions, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and buy out - of - the - money call options [5][15]. Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, the major indices showed a trend of decline in the morning and a slight recovery in the afternoon. The TMT sector was strong, while the dividend sector retreated. Among the four major stock index futures contracts, IC2603 and IM2603 rose slightly, and IF2603 and IH2603 remained stable. The basis of IF2603 and IH2603 showed an obvious premium trend, while the discount of IC2603 and IM2603 continued to be repaired [7][8]. - News: Domestically, the UK Prime Minister will visit China, and the two sides will strengthen economic and trade cooperation. Overseas, the US may raise tariffs on South Korean products. The A - share market trading volume decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 78 billion yuan [8][9]. - Operation Suggestions: Although some theme industries are strong, there is a large outflow of funds from broad - based ETFs, and the market trading divergence is large. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions in a timely manner, and try to buy both calls and puts to bet on increased volatility [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year main contract falling 0.33%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [10]. - Funding Situation: The central bank carried out 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 78 billion yuan. The funding situation in the inter - bank market has improved, but there may be a phased convergence at the end of January to before the Spring Festival [11]. - Operation Suggestions: The bond market is still in a shock pattern. The short - term probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is low, and the bond market lacks a new driving force. It is recommended to operate within the range, pay attention to the positive arbitrage of TL and T contracts, and the strategy of widening the basis [11]. Precious Metals - Market Review: Geopolitical conflicts and other factors have led to the weakening of the US dollar index. Gold reached a new high, silver rose after a sharp rise and fall, and platinum and palladium fluctuated and weakened [14]. - Outlook: The long - term upward space of the gold price is supported by factors such as the slowdown of employment and inflation in the United States, the long - term easing expectation, trade frictions, and geopolitical risks. For silver, the demand in the industrial field may be affected by cost factors, but new demand in the AI field provides support. For platinum and palladium, the price center has been rising, but the supply tension in the London spot market has eased, which may limit the upward space [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The CL premium has narrowed, and the spot discount has widened. The global visible inventory has accumulated to a high level in recent years. The short - term price is affected by the CL premium trend, and the long - term price is expected to rise due to supply - side constraints. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000 yuan [16][19]. - Alumina: Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, and the price fluctuates. The supply pattern is gradually becoming loose, and the high inventory pressure in the domestic spot market suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with a reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan [20][22]. - Aluminum: The weakening of the US dollar drives the aluminum price to run strongly. The supply side shows rigid growth, while the demand side is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory has entered an accumulation cycle. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with a reference range of 23,500 - 25,000 yuan [23][25]. - Zinc: Overseas smelting costs have increased, and the zinc price is strong. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side has improved, and the global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 24,000 yuan and hold a long - at - low strategy [28][31]. - Tin: The price of tin rose at the end of the session, but the spot trading was cold. The supply has increased, while the demand of solder enterprises is under pressure. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment, and a long - at - low strategy is recommended for the long - term [31][34]. - Nickel: The impact of news has been digested, and the price is in a shock - falling pattern. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is generally stable. It is expected to be in a strong - range shock, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [34][36]. - Stainless Steel: The price is in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a game between cost and supply - demand. The cost is supported by the rise in raw material prices, but the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a shock adjustment, with a reference range of 14,000 - 15,000 yuan [37][39]. - Lithium Carbonate: The regulatory environment has been strengthened, and the price rose at the end of the session. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday overhauls, while the demand maintains a certain resilience. It is expected to be in a strong - range shock, with a reference range of 170,000 - 185,000 yuan [40][44]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has fallen slightly, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. The supply is expected to decrease in February, and the demand is better than expected due to export rush, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the production reduction process and price changes [44][46]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. The supply is expected to decrease in February, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be in a shock pattern, with a reference range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan [46][49]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The steel price is stable, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar has widened. The cost has fallen, and the profit has expanded. The production is at a low level and stable, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation cycle. It is expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 3,100 - 3,200 yuan for rebar and 3,250 - 3,350 yuan for hot - rolled [49][50]. - Iron Ore: Vale's accident has limited impact on supply. The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to factors such as the lower - than - expected resumption of pig iron production and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 yuan [51][52]. - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the price of Mongolian coal has fallen from a high level. The supply has increased, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased moderately. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan [53][57]. - Coke: The price increase of coke by mainstream coke enterprises is difficult to implement, and the port trade price has fallen. The supply is affected by coking coal prices, and the demand is related to pig iron production. The inventory has increased moderately. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,750 yuan [58][59]. - Silicon Iron: There is no major contradiction between supply and demand, and the cost has an upward expectation. The production is at a low level and stable, and the demand is relatively stable. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,900 yuan [60][61]. - Manganese Silicon: The replenishment of manganese ore is approaching the end, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The supply is at a low level and stable, and the demand is related to pig iron production. The inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 yuan [62][65]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported, and the upper space is affected by cost and arrival. The domestic spot supply is loose, and the开机 rate is high. The arrival in the first quarter is expected to be low, and there is uncertainty in the arrival rhythm. It is expected to be in a shock pattern [66][67]. - Live Pigs: The slaughter pressure has increased, and the supply - demand game has intensified. The spot price is in a weak - shock pattern, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is expected to be in a bottom - range shock pattern [68][69]. - Corn: The long - short game has intensified, and the price is in a high - level shock pattern. The price in the Northeast is stable and strong, and the price in the North China is up and down. The demand side has different inventory levels, and the policy has a certain impact. It is expected to be in a high - level shock pattern [70][71]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar is in a shock - consolidation pattern, and the domestic price has limited fluctuations. The production in Brazil has decreased in the second half of December, and the production in Thailand is slow. The domestic terminal procurement is light, and the price is supported by cost. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [72][74]. - Cotton: The US cotton has recovered its decline, and the domestic price continues to adjust. The US cotton is in a low - level shock pattern, and the domestic cotton is supported by high consumption and planting area adjustment expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 14,500 yuan [74][75]. - Eggs: The spot price is stable and strong, and the sentiment towards high prices is cautious. The supply is sufficient and stable, and the demand is different in the north and south. It is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [76][77]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil is in a strong - consolidation pattern. The price of soybean oil is affected by the high price of related oils, and the price of rapeseed oil is affected by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory changes of palm oil and the impact of geopolitical factors on rapeseed oil [78][80]. - Jujubes: The stocking is approaching the end, and the price has rebounded slightly. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the sales in the distribution area are light. The futures price is at a low - valuation level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the post - festival weather and inventory [81][83]. - Apples: The demand has increased, and the futures price has increased with increased positions. The trading in the spot market has improved slightly, but the sales of farmers' goods are still limited. The inventory has decreased, but the inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - festival inventory [84][85]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The supply - demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term, and the price is in a high - level shock pattern before the Spring Festival. The supply and demand in the first quarter are weaker than expected, but the price has strong support in the second quarter. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium term and operate within the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan in the short term [86][87]. - PTA: Due to the expected seasonal inventory accumulation, the price is in a high - level shock pattern before the Spring Festival. The supply and demand are gradually weakening, but the price has limited downward space due to the expected improvement in the second quarter. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium term, operate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan in the short term, and conduct a positive arbitrage between TA5 and TA9 [88][89]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [90][91]. - Bottle - grade PET: Multiple bottle - grade PET plants are under maintenance, and the factory is continuously reducing inventory, which supports the processing margin. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand will be seasonally weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 6,200 yuan for PR2603 and expect the processing margin to fluctuate within the range of 400 - 550 yuan [92][93]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand expectation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It is recommended to conduct a positive arbitrage between EG5 and EG9 and sell out - of - the - money put options on EG2605 - P - 3800 at a high price [94]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory suppresses the price. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream load has increased. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [95][96]. - Styrene: The supply - demand expectation is gradually weakening, and the high - valuation price is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97][98]. - LLDPE: The order placement has worsened, and the trading has weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and wait and see [99]. - PP: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is in a shock pattern. The unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. It is recommended to wait and see [100]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is in a strong shock, and the basis is weak. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when geopolitical tensions ease [100][101]. - Caustic Soda:
广发早知道：汇总版-20260128
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-28 01:25