集运早报-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For contract 04, pay attention to spot and actual shipping. Before the Spring Festival, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, so shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to raise prices and stimulate a post - holiday rush, potentially weakening the decline slope in March. Currently, the valuation of 04 is neutral, with shorting on rallies as the main strategy before the Spring Festival, and geopolitical fluctuations should be noted. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly using a positive spread strategy. Currently, the valuation of 10 is moderately high, and opportunities to short 10 on rallies should be monitored. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2602 closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.53% change, EC2604 at 1193.9 (- 0.52%), EC2606 at 1442.2 (- 0.37%), EC2608 at 1528.4 (+ 0.29%), and EC2610 at 1112.0 (- 0.20%). [2] - Month - to - Month Spreads: EC2502 - 2604 spread was 523.6 (previous day: 526.5, previous two days: 579.4, day - on - day change: - 2.9); EC2504 - 2606 spread was - 248.3 (previous day: - 247.4, previous two days: - 274.6, day - on - day change: - 0.9). [2] - Indices: SCFIS (on January 26, 2026) was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period; SCFI (on January 23, 2026) was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. - On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February weeks 7 - 9 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations. [4] Relevant News - On January 28, US President Trump announced a large fleet was heading to the Middle East. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group had reached the Indian Ocean and was expected to reach the Arabian Sea in a few days. The US was deploying more transport planes, tankers, and missile defense systems in the region. - On January 28, Iranian officials said they were monitoring the Strait of Hormuz in real - time. An Iranian naval commander said Iran's control of the strait was fully intelligentized. - On January 28, the US was reported to have informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran. Preparations were expected to be completed in two weeks, and there might be an "opportunity window" for action in the next few months. [5]