原油成品油早报-20260128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a conciliatory tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - On Tuesday, the settlement prices of US and Brent crude oil futures rose by 3%, reaching $62.39 and $67.57 per ounce respectively. Due to a severe winter storm in the US, oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production over the weekend, about 15% of the national output. The cold weather may lead to a significant decline in oil inventories in the coming weeks. The crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from US Gulf Coast ports dropped to zero on Sunday but rebounded on Monday. In Kazakhstan, the Tengiz oil field may not recover to half of its normal production by February 7, but the loading capacity of the CPC terminal has returned to full capacity [3] - The API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 23 was -247,000 barrels, compared with an expected 1.45 million barrels and a previous value of 3.043 million barrels. The API gasoline inventory was -415,000 barrels, compared with an expected 126,000 barrels and a previous value of 6.209 million barrels. The API refined oil inventory was 2.013 million barrels, compared with an expected -1.55 million barrels and a previous value of -33,000 barrels [3] - On January 27, the Iranian president and the Saudi crown prince had a phone call to discuss the regional situation. The Iranian president believed that the US and Israel were involved in the recent unrest in Iran, and the US's threats and psychological warfare would only bring instability to itself. He also expressed Iran's willingness to achieve peace and stability within the framework of international law. The Saudi crown prince stated that Saudi Arabia would not accept any threats and tensions against Iran and was ready to cooperate with Iran and other regional countries to establish lasting peace and security [3] - US President Trump said on January 27 that another fleet was heading towards Iran, hoping that Iran would reach an agreement with the US [3] Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day [3] - In the week ending January 16, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, an increase of 0.85% [3] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - In the week ending January 16, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.19% [3] - In the week ending January 16, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [3] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3]