永安期货有色早报-20260128

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report maintains a bullish view on copper prices in the medium term, as the fundamentals of copper feature limited supply and increasing demand. The current global consumption of copper is strong, and although the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation in China may exceed expectations, the post - festival inventory reduction is also expected to be rapid [1]. - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are at a low level, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded. The overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price, and the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative [2]. - Regarding zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its price increase due to limited long - term capital investment and potential supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [7]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and a high - level decline in Jinchuan premium. There is a short - term game between policies and fundamentals [12]. - Stainless steel has a generally weak fundamental situation. The production of steel mills remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [17]. - For lead, the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and there is an expectation of looser spot supply. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [19]. - Tin is favored by long - position funds. In the short term, the domestic fundamentals are not weak, and it can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, in the long term, if there is a macro turning point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of the year [22]. - Industrial silicon's monthly supply continues to shrink, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January, and the absolute price is greatly affected by futures market expectations and sentiment. A spot - futures resonance market may occur if expectations cool down or the intermediate inventory reaches a low level [27]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Weekly copper prices dropped to test the 99,000 support level in the middle of the week and then rose sharply on Friday night. The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, but global copper consumption is strong, and there is strong rigid demand for copper. In China, the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival inventory reduction may also be rapid [1]. Aluminum - Aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are low, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products has rebounded. December's auto consumption was below expectations, but photovoltaic installation volume increased. The LME 0 - 3M spread returned to negative, and overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price [2]. Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward, and domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The LME low inventory is rising, and the premium has turned to a discount. The market is optimistic about zinc's price increase, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [6][7]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand is weak, and the Jinchuan premium has declined. Domestic inventory has increased slightly, and LME inventory has remained stable. There is a short - term game between policies and fundamentals [11][12]. Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, nickel - iron prices have stabilized slightly, and chromium - iron prices have remained stable. Inventory has decreased slightly from a high level, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [17]. Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production is driven by profit, and recycled lead has resumed production. On the demand side, battery production is at a high level, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory is accumulating [18][19]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated upward this week and are favored by long - position funds. There are differences in the expectation of supply recovery in Wa State in the first quarter. Downstream replenishment willingness varies, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. In the short term, it can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals, but there may be significant downward fluctuations in the second half of the year [22]. Industrial Silicon - The production in the southwest region is at a low level, and the production in Xinjiang is stable while that in Inner Mongolia has decreased. Monthly supply is shrinking, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market was strong last week. The raw material inventory of non - integrated lithium salt plants is relatively sufficient. Lithium salt plants have a strong mentality of holding back sales. Downstream enterprises are starting to stock up. The short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January, and the price is affected by futures market expectations [27].