日评-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market has complex trends with different varieties showing various performances such as oscillation, strength, or weakness, and is affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Metals - Zinc (ZN2603): Oscillation with a bullish bias, overseas smelting cost increase drives the price up, hold cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - Methanol (MA2605): Oscillation with a bullish bias, pay attention to geopolitical changes and take profit on long positions when the situation eases [3]. - Iron Ore (I2605): Weak adjustment, Vale's accident but the price is still under pressure, short positions can be set up around 800 [3]. - Palm Oil (P2605): Short - term bullish, may try to break through 9300 [3]. - Gold (AU2604): Bullish oscillation, take profit on long positions at high prices, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - Copper (CU2603): CL premium narrows and spot discount widens, take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the 99000 - 100000 support level [3]. - Aluminum (AL2603): The dollar drops to a four - year low, driving the price up strongly. Wait for a pullback to set up long positions in the 23500 - 25000 range [3]. - Tin (SN2603): The price rises at the end of the session but spot trading is cold. Be cautious in the short - term, consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. - Nickel (NI2602): The driving force is limited after the news is digested, conduct range - bound trading in the 140000 - 150000 range [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS2603): Oscillation adjustment, the main contract ranges from 14200 to 15000 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (Si2605): Spot price stabilizes, futures price rises and then falls, the main contract ranges from 8200 to 9200 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - PX (PX2603): High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 7100 - 7500, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - PTA (TA2605): High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 5100 - 5400, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - Short - fiber (PF2603): Follow raw materials, do positive arbitrage in TA5 - 9, shrink processing fees at high levels [3]. - Bottle Chips (PR2603): Multiple devices are under maintenance and factories are destocking, processing fees are supported, ranging from 400 - 550 yuan/ton [3]. - Ethanol (EG2605): Positive arbitrage opportunity, sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high prices [3]. - Pure Benzene (BZ2603): Supply - demand improves but high inventory suppresses, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - Styrene (EB2603): Supply - demand weakens and high valuation pressures the price, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - LLDPE (L2605): Trading volume decreases, wait and see [3]. - PP (PP2605): Supply - demand is weak, price oscillates, wait and see [3]. - Caustic Soda (SH2603): Supply pressure is high, price center moves down, short on rebounds [3]. - PVC (V2605): May enter wide - range oscillation, short - term low - buying, wait and see on short positions [3]. - Urea (UR2605): Take profit on long positions, short at high prices [3]. - Soda Ash (SA2605): Oscillation is weak, wait and see [3]. - Glass (FG2605): Supply - demand is weak, pay attention to production lines and inventory changes, wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal (M2605): Strong bottom support, range oscillation [3]. - Live Pigs (FH2603): Supply - demand game intensifies, range oscillation [3]. - Corn (C2603): Oscillation [3]. - Sugar (SR2605): Spot trading slows down, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. - Cotton (CF2605): Spot is stable, pay attention to the support at 14400 - 14500 [3]. - Eggs (JD2603): Spot is stable with a bullish bias, range oscillation [3]. - Apples (AP2605): Demand increases, participate in the rebound with a light position [3]. - Red Dates (CJ2605): Stocking is nearing the end, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures (IF2603, IC2603, IH2603, IM2603): Broad - based indexes oscillate in a range, theme industries rise structurally, control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603): The bond market is in an oscillatory pattern, conduct range - bound operations, and pay attention to positive arbitrage in TL and T contracts [3]. - Precious Metals Futures (AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, PD2606): The price trends of precious metals diverge, take profit on gold long positions at high prices, and be careful with silver and platinum [3]. Building Materials - Steel (RB2605): Steel price is stable, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens, hold long positions on the spread [3]. - Coking Coal (JM2605): Coal prices in Shanxi loosen, Mongolian coal price falls from a high, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - Coke (J2605): Coke price increase is hard to implement, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon (SF603): No major supply - demand contradiction, cost may rise, wide - range oscillation [3]. - Manganese Silicon (SM605): Ore replenishment is nearly over, supply - demand improves, wide - range oscillation [3]. - Alumina (AO2605): Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, sell out - of - the - money put options at the price lower limit and short at high prices [3].