广发期货日报-20260128

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - Inventory and Other Factors: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - Industry Situation: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - Industry Situation: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - Market Situation: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - Market Situation: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - Market Situation: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - Market Situation: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - Market Situation: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - Price Changes: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - Market Situation: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]