广发期货早评-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - PVC: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - Glass: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - Styrene: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - Bottle - chip: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - Fundamental Data: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - Upstream - Downstream开工率: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - Price and Spread: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - Inventory: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - Upstream - Downstream开工率: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - Futures Price and Spread: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - Upstream Raw Materials: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - Downstream Products: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - Supply - Demand Overview: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - Supply: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - Demand: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - Inventory: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - Supply: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - Real - Estate Data: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - Styrene - Related Price and Spread: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - Inventory: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - Industrial Chain开工率: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - Crude Oil Price and Spread: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - Refined - Oil Price and Spread: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - Refined - Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - Price and Spread: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - Upstream - Downstream开工率: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Price: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - PX - Related Price and Spread: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - PTA - Related Price and Spread: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - MEG - Related Price and Spread: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - Inventory and Arrival Expectation: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - Industrial Chain开工率: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].