《能源化工》日报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension of tapping, and overseas raw material prices are likely to rise, strengthening cost support. Demand is weak, with slow domestic sales and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are strong. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to maintenance, while PE's standard product pressure increases. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal device maintenance [2]. LPG - The price is affected by factors such as inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates. The downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market situation needs to be further observed [3]. Urea - The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, with the main contract of urea focusing on the range of 1,760 - 1,800 [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand. PVC is expected to have a downward adjustment in the market, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weakly volatile market. Soda ash is affected by inventory and demand, while glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the pre - holiday off - season [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene's price may be under pressure at high levels due to factors such as increased import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and its price is also expected to be under pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply - side factors support the rise in oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is being depleted, but high production restricts the rebound space. The port inventory is slightly increasing, and the demand for MTO is weak [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX, PTA, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and seasonality. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol has a pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term supply - demand [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of Yunnan state - owned full - latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed to varying degrees, and the basis has also fluctuated [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread [1]. - Fundamental Data: Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries' production in November has changed, and indicators such as tire production, export volume, and import volume in December have also changed [1]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of bonded areas and factory warehouses has changed, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao have also changed [1]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries have changed, and the inventory of enterprises and society has decreased [2]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis have changed [3]. - Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has increased, port inventory has decreased, and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed [3]. Urea - Futures Prices and Spreads: The prices of urea futures contracts have fluctuated, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [4]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: Domestic urea daily and weekly production has increased, inventory has decreased, and demand is weak [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures have decreased to varying degrees [6]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [6]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries have changed, and inventory has increased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass and soda ash spot and futures have decreased, and the basis has changed [7]. - Supply and Inventory: The production and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed, and real - estate data has also changed [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different products have changed [8]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of styrene spot and futures have decreased, and the spreads and cash flows have changed [8]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [8]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [10]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of refined oil in different regions have changed [10]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have decreased, and the spreads and basis have changed [14]. - Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates: Methanol enterprise and port inventory have changed, and upstream - downstream operating rates have also changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. have changed [16]. - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: The prices and cash flows of POY, FDY, etc. have changed [16]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [16]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [16]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and inventory and operating rates have also changed [16].