铝产业链数据周度报告-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For caustic soda, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity. If it is successfully put into production, consider going long at low prices [23][24] - For alumina, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are in high - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Industry Chain Related Products Futures and Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, aluminum, caustic soda, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices and their basis through charts [4] Caustic Soda Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 87.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 863,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous week. The weekly inventory was 509,600 tons, a 2,500 - ton decrease from the previous week, showing a narrow de - stocking but still at a high level [8] Aluminum Raw Material Supply Side - As of January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 482,400 tons from the previous week. As of the end of December, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.66 million tons, a 2.07% increase from the previous month and a 12.55% increase from the same period last year, at a historical high [10][11] Alumina Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.18%, a 0.65 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.839 million tons, a 14,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The total inventory was 5.487 million tons, an increase of 94,000 tons from the previous week [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - As of the end of December, China's primary aluminum production was 3,767,000 tons, and the import volume was 189,200 tons. The operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.3%, remaining at a high level. As of the end of November, the inventory was 595,000 tons [17] Main Inventory Trends of Three Major Aluminum Exchanges - As of January 23, the LME aluminum inventory was 509,300 tons, an increase of 21,275 tons from last Friday. The SHFE aluminum inventory was 197,100 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last Friday. The COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,449 tons, a decrease of 989 tons from the previous week. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the three major global exchanges continued to accumulate this week [21][22] Strategy Recommendations Caustic Soda - This week, the caustic soda futures price continued to decline. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1,945 yuan/ton, a 3.04% decrease from last Friday. The spot price changed little. As of January 23, the converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 2,330 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from last Friday. In the short - term, it is in low - level oscillation. In the long - term, pay attention to the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity [23][24] Alumina, Shanghai Aluminum, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - This week, the futures prices of alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy basically maintained an oscillating trend. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main alumina contract was 2,724 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from last Friday; the closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 24,290 yuan/ton, a 1.53% increase from last Friday; the closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,995 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase from last Friday. In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are in high - level oscillation. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly in a quantitative easing environment, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27]