瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to high开工, high inventory, weak demand, and limited cost support. The V2605 daily K - line should pay attention to the support near 4860 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4913 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan; the trading volume is 1121915 lots, a decrease of 38791 lots; the open interest is 1039839 lots, a decrease of 20469 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 998443 lots, a decrease of 29378 lots; the short positions are 1137859 lots, an increase of 10911 lots; the net long positions are - 139416 lots, a decrease of 40289 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 4890 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) and 4930 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC are 4716.92 yuan/ton (down 15.77 yuan) and 4731.88 yuan/ton (down 26.25 yuan) respectively. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia are 680 and 660 US dollars/ton respectively (both unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 2541 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 433 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars) respectively; the CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons, including 52.74 million tons in East China (an increase of 1.12 million tons) and 4.91 million tons in South China (an increase of 0.37 million tons) [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative new housing construction area is 58769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5313.26 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, an increase of 3824.09 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, an increase of 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 19.9%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.93%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4924 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased to - 800 yuan/ton with deeper losses, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3].