瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output and capacity utilization rate of PE are expected to continue the upward trend, while the downstream demand is likely to remain weak The short - term L2605 is predicted to show a fluctuating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6900 and the resistance around 7030 [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures main contracts, 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts all increased The trading volume was 559,235 hands (a week - on - week increase of 62,270 hands), and the open interest was 531,194 hands (a week - on - week increase of 10,434 hands) The 1 - 5 spread was 58 (an increase of 10) The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,345 hands (an increase of 1,725 hands) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,869.57 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 28.26 yuan/ton), and in East China was 6,969.53 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 33.72 yuan/ton) The basis was - 97.43 (a decrease of 39.73) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.66 US dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.53 US dollars/barrel), the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 573.25 US dollars/ton (an increase of 8 US dollars/ton) The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 686 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton), and in Northeast Asia was 701 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 84.67% (an increase of 3.08 percentage points) [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 44.96% (a decrease of 3.19 percentage points), 29% (a decrease of 0.33 percentage points), and 36.32% (a decrease of 0.61 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 13.83% (an increase of 0.07 percentage points), and the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.65% (a decrease of 0.3 percentage points) The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 15.42% (a decrease of 1.04 percentage points) [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's PE output was 698,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 4.34%), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.67% (an increase of 3.07 percentage points) The average operating rate of PE downstream products decreased by 1.4%, with the agricultural film and PE packaging film operating rates decreasing by 0.6% and 3.2% respectively As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%); as of January 23rd, the social inventory of PE was 479,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.48%) From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7,202 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6,524 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton [2]